Posted on 11/05/2022 7:30:25 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA
Don’t be surprised if Leora Levy upsets Stolen Valor Blumenthal in Connecticut. It was -5 last week with Stolen Valor under 50.
A good second wave in 2024 and we could have a 60 seat majority in the Senate.
I am just warning folks here not to get too excited about CT.
We have the “before midnight” election and then the “after midnight” selection....
I'd love to see that. Committee Chairmen like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul will be fun to watch.
That’s right...I forgot about Nevada! Is Washington really in play?
The Republicans are doing very well in CT this year—may even flip a Congressional seat or so—but the statewide races remain a challenge for reasons I have discussed.
Yes, and we may just hve Joey and Kameltoe to drag down the Dems so we win the marginal races.
The Senate numbers are more favorable for Republican gains in 2024 than this year, and they may have substantial gains this year. 23 Democrats (counting the two “Independents” who caucus with them) and 10 Republicans will be up. (11 if Sasse goes through with his resignation; whomever the governor appoints will face a special election to fill the rest of Sasse’s term.)
Works for me
“Sabato leans left, but he seems to be a fairly good pollster.”
I don’t think he does much polling. His organization is heavy into data analysis. They use polls other organizations conduct and combine that data with information about early voting, party registration of those voting, demographic trends in states and localities, voting patterns all of the way down to the precinct level. Heavy quantitative analysis combined with qualitative analysis of behavior.
If we go back 30-40 years this would be a wave election. Democrats would break hard for the GOP in order to send a message (like they did in 1980 when they repudiated Carter by voting for Reagan. However, people are more “loyal” to party and tend to stay with the brand they identify with even when they are unhappy. My sense is Sabato thinks it should be a wave, but it may be when Democrats and liberal independents cast a vote, they vote for the D brand. Not unlike what conservative Republicans did when they voted for George W. Bush, John McCain, and particularly Mitt Romney because the Democrat alternative was perceived as worse.
Yes - he was one of the most liberal Senators in the chamber as a whole. Joe Lieberman actually (and legitimately) ran to his right and defeated him. And Lieberman was certainly no conservative.
Trafalgar has Smiley down by only 1 point, with 2.9 margin of error.
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