The Dems have actually already conceded the House when you look at spending.
R pickups long-ago conceded (9): CA-3, FL-4, FL-7, FL-13, GA-6, MI-10, TN-5, TX-15, WI-3
D pickups long-ago conceded (3): IL-13, NC-14, TX-37
R targets D’s have stopped spending on (8): AZ-2, AZ-6, CA-13, IA-3, IN-1, NJ-7, OR-5, VA-2
D targets R’s have stopped spending on (1): MI-3
These moves alone would bring the House to R+13, that’s the floor at this point.
I agree, at least +10 is assured and it would be disappointing if it really turned out to be that meager.