Diesel is a commodity in a global market.
If Europe doesnt buy from Russia, then others will buy from Russia as deliveries from elsewhere shift to Europe.
This is like a waterbed. Press down in one spot and the rest rises.
The real problem is if you take supply out of the system. Thats whats already going on in the US. From this year on US refiners are unable to produce as much as they did.
This will affect the global market, almost equally everywhere, after things adjust. Its possible that other nations refiners will be able to make up the difference, but we can only wait on that.
In total, the USA has been exporting 6 million b/d of refined oil products and 2.96 million b/d of crude oil.
See: eia.gov
Yes. Russia is getting lower prices for oil. Here in the US, the population has been increasing with the influx from regions closer to the equator, so there are ever more trucks on the highways. Refining capacity needs to be increased.
Also, if you have your own overflowing domestic supply, and plenty of refineries (as we did in the past), then, like with a full SPR, you can cruise over the rough stretches.
But if you domestic production is way down, refineries are closed and none built, and the SPR depleted as a cheap political trick....
Your country is screwed.
(All three of the supply corners wrecked, “by accident,” or on purpose? Sabotage.)