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US Treasury Yield Curve
Treasury Department ^ | 10/24/2022 | Not Attributed

Posted on 10/25/2022 9:16:14 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods

US Treasuries Yield Curve. An app for exploring historical interest rates.

(Excerpt) Read more at ustreasuryyieldcurve.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bonds; treasuries; yieldcurve
The chart shows yesterday, but right now for the first time in this cycle the 3 month Treasury Bill has inverted above the 10 year T-Bill. This is a stronger indicator of oncoming recession than the 2YR inversion which is often wrong. The cycle is performing as expected, this means progress is being made. We have to complete this cycle for the economy to recover again and I like seeing it happen this fast. A failure to invert would just mean longer and worse pain.
1 posted on 10/25/2022 9:16:14 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods
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To: SaxxonWoods

Hi.

Unfortunately you are probably correct.

FRED has this info too.

5.56mm


2 posted on 10/25/2022 9:21:48 AM PDT by M Kehoe (Quid Pro Joe and the Ho got to go)
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To: SaxxonWoods

The 2yr and 10yr yields have been inverted for some time now. I hear some say, that is a sign of recession. Others say it’s the 3yr and 10yr yields inverted. That is only recent. Looking at the chart, everything 6mon and greater is inverted to the 10yr. In layman’s terms, it is more risky to lend in the short term because the economy sucks.


3 posted on 10/25/2022 9:26:14 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA ( Scratch a leftist and you'll find a fascist )
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To: M Kehoe

Thanks.


4 posted on 10/25/2022 9:30:12 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself.)
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To: ConservativeInPA

“In layman’s terms, it is more risky to lend in the short term because the economy sucks.”

Thanks.

I take it to mean that longer term rates are expected to drop as we work through the current and proceeding economic contraction which still has work to do.


5 posted on 10/25/2022 9:33:05 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (The only way to secure your own future is to create it yourself.)
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To: SaxxonWoods
I take it to mean that longer term rates are expected to drop as we work through the current and proceeding economic contraction which still has work to do.

Correct, in a couple years or a decade, maybe.

6 posted on 10/25/2022 9:36:02 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA ( Scratch a leftist and you'll find a fascist )
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To: SaxxonWoods

Yes, we are in a recession and it will continue thru 2023. In fact, I think next year will be pretty bad as people pay high heating costs and food costs and more. There is always a lag and we still haven’t seen the fallout from the corporate real estate market as companies drastically cut space as leases mature.


7 posted on 10/25/2022 9:36:07 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: SaxxonWoods

Core PCE report on Friday. Per Zerohedge, economists expect the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to rise by 30bps to 5.2%.


8 posted on 10/25/2022 9:42:47 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: 1Old Pro

Yes, we are in a recession and it will continue thru 2023.

**************

Agree. Excesses have to be corrected. It will take time.


9 posted on 10/25/2022 9:44:57 AM PDT by Starboard
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