It Is Still a Unipolar World

In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the United States is trying to impose a new world order, one designed to control Russia, China and Europe, as well as the lesser powers of the world. It’s tempting to write it off as the ranting of a leader at war, but there’s more to it than that. Ignore the fact that Washington’s seeking a unipolar world assumes a level of planning that runs counter to the American reality. What Putin is trying to come to terms with is that in planning for war in Ukraine, Moscow completely misunderstood the nature of the world.

Specifically, Russia misunderstood American subtlety. The United States did not commit major military force to block Russia’s advance, nor did it cede any part of Ukraine. The United States understood the threat posed by Russia on the border with NATO – that is, a new Cold War – and it understood Ukraine better than Russia did. So it sent massive amounts of weapons to Ukraine, the power and sophistication of which could not be matched. It struck blow after indirect blow.

Moscow also failed to understand America’s relationship with Europe. Time and again, Europeans bemoaned that Washington had abandoned its European commitments. That that was never the case didn’t stop U.S. think tanks from validating the idea, nor did it dissuade Russia from believing it. In times of peace, the U.S. could do without the prior relationship with Europe, bickering over trade rules and Russian energy dependence. But when the war broke out, the relationship rapidly transformed. Germany, for example, did not value Russian fuel as much as it valued American security guarantees. The Europeans knew that Russia could hurt them, and they did not really trust the Russians, but when push came to shove, they knew American interests lay in Europe. Putin, I think, was stunned when he learned the Germans stood with the Americans. He lacked a sophisticated understanding that there are different types of power and that the power projected by Russia was too blunt to work. Putin could not understand the power of appearing uncertain.

Still, the worst mistake Putin made concerns the U.S. relationship with China, a country in deep economic crisis. Moscow could neither hurt nor help China. The U.S. can do both – help by increasing investment and buying more goods, and hurt by blocking the sale of, say, certain microchips. China believed it did not need the United States to recover, and it convinced itself that Washington could be intimidated by naval and related power. Instead, Beijing discovered that its threats around Taiwan and other areas simply generated more vessels and weapons to be deployed against it. The utility of an alliance with Russia was shattered by the realization that the U.S. could respond militarily in Ukraine and, simultaneously, in the South China Sea.

All of this should have been obvious, and I think China was more aware of U.S. capabilities than Russia was. Chinese President Xi Jinping knew when to cut his losses. Putin kept doubling down. This seemed to be validated over the weekend by a spokesman for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, whose statements were paraphrased by China’s Global Times newspaper as follows:

“If one of the most important events in international relations in the past 50 years is the restoration and development of China-U.S. relations, which has benefited both countries and the world, then the most important thing in international relations for the next 50 years is that China and the U.S. must find the right way to get along with each other. The key for China and the U.S. to find the right way to get on with each other is mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping. Common interests between China and the U.S. far outweigh differences, and a sound and stable China-U.S. relationship serves the common interests of the two peoples.”

We are used to China hurling threats at the United States. Now, it is searching for ways to accommodate the U.S. It has noted the American performance in Ukraine, both subtle and brutal, and has decided that an alliance with the U.S., however loosely defined or temporary, is far more attractive.

It’s no surprise, then, that Putin sees the U.S. as a force trying to create a unipolar world, because in some notable ways, it is a unipolar world. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world, its current problems notwithstanding. It also has a sophisticated military, able to bring overwhelming force to bear, train an army at war in new weapons, and use subtle force to shape the world. American power isn’t absolute, and it can be outstripped. But it is sufficiently mobile to act sequentially when simultaneous action is impossible. Put simply, the United States is the most powerful economic and military force in the world – when it chooses to act. Inaction can be confused by men like Putin as weakness. The U.S. has learned that with its inherent power it has time to react.

The American public often sees the United States as weak and mismanaged. There’s a tendency to label Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush as criminals or morons or both. The same charges were levied against Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt. Contempt for the commanders-in-chief is a prerequisite, to prevent tyranny, even if it has its drawbacks. The America First movement opposing U.S. participation in World War II interfered with Roosevelt’s ability to make decisions. It had a direct impact on Pearl Harbor and caused a painful initiation for the U.S. into war by the Japanese, which of course ended in catastrophe for them.

The perception of American weakness is a global one, shared even among Americans. Being underestimated has its uses, as does sporting a public that doesn’t trust its president. But only enormously powerful nations can afford the contempt. The past few months haven’t taught us that the United States is finagling a new world order. It’s taught us that Russia is weakening, that China is managing its relationship with the U.S. carefully, and that the international architecture created after World War II, though more complex, essentially remains in place. It is a unipolar world.

RE: So says the one who lives and dies by the West/US/UK/EU/NATO propaganda media.......

Nope, So says the one who reads various sources critically. It is not a goo idea to live and die by any one source, especially NOT RT.

I doubt that Putin or anyone in his admin said anything like what is said here.

He is no dummy. He knows that his enemy (actually the enemy of the human race) is BeijingBiden.
Most likely he said: “This WHouse admin is....yada yada.”

And what about pitting that coalition ( what ever it is ) with those that WILL coalesce with us?

Europe is less powerful and less behind Biden than some people think it is. Already there's talk that we blew up the pipeline. And if those two coalitions are of anything close to equal strength, then it's not really a unipolar world anymore.

Reading and analyzing various sources critically requires objectiveness and true objectiveness infers you are critically reading and analyzing ALL sources, no matter the source, no matter the author etc., to include RT, to formulate an alleged objective opinion, etc.

GG one who reads various sources critically.

There is a very cool vid on You Tube showing the world’s Top 10 Countries by GDP (1896-2022).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCSVXo8ZUiA&t=311s

The steadiness of the US’ advantage while others wax and wane, even in periods for the US of serious stress and / or poor leadership, is remarkable. That doesn’t mean we can’t blow it! But, it does indicate that other factors than the argument of the day are at work.

I would note that if China continues its spiral into renewed authoritarianism, “zero COVID”, and so on, it is not likely to continue its recent progress.

Ok, I think it would be a coalition of China, Russia and their “Allies”, North Korea, Belarus, Iran and maybe Cuba ( can you think of any other? )

This article presents reasons why China is not “all in” on supporting Russia given her current precarious economic situation.

So, it’s NATO and the US plus Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand and Southeast Asian countries and Israel and the Sunni Arab countries vs the above list.

Then, we also have India, which in and of itself has an ongoing border clash with China.

I’m not sure I’d put my money on the First coalition

RE: Reading and analyzing various sources critically requires objectiveness and true objectiveness infers you are critically reading and analyzing ALL sources, no matter the source, no matter the author etc., to include RT, to formulate an alleged objective opinion

Yes. True and that’s what I strive to do. I don’t just say I trust source X more than source Y. Not certainly RT, which in and of itself, is similar to China’s CGTN or Zucker’s CNN.

Your coalitions are quite odd. Why do you think Sunni Arabs are going to ally with the West against China? Since when ROC and Israel have a dog in the fight? Where are Africa and Latin America in the equation? What are you think that Europe is going to stay uniform and a part of the West?

A unipolar world means that we are more likely to get what we want. It's not playing out that way.

When I wrote about the coalition forming against us, I was referring to diplomacy, not about a military confrontation or military alliances. China, India, South Africa and Pakistan all abstained on the UN resolution condemning Russia.

The Saudis aren't too happy with Biden and even many Europeans aren't either. Sure, foreigners see Putin as a thug, but they also have real reservations and objections about Biden and the USA.

This ought to be taken as a sign that there are greater limits on our influence and appeal than there were in the Clinton years. Talk about a unipolar world just hides that reality.

“Neither China or Russia or their combination comes close to equalling US power.”

Yep, and even this “BRICs” stuff is just a pipedream. The Southern hemisphere can’t compete with the Northern hemisphere. Not even with Russia and China on their side. That’s geopolitics 101.

I would add to my last post that I do disagree with multiple statements in the article, though they do not disprove the overall assertion.

One glaring example is “massive amounts of weapons to Ukraine”. This is nonsense. So far the best we’ve sent are mid-end lower power versions of HIMARS, and mid-end versions of the M777. All of 20 of the HIMARS, in particular. Poland, by contrast, has ordered up 500! They understand the score...

One can get back to me when we’ve sent 100 HIMARS with generous amounts of our better ammo, and kits for 1000 decoys. Or maybe 100 of the M777-ER.

OTOH, we hear unending claims US cooperation with Europe, and a unified Europe vs. Russia, are about to blow up. What was that last vote of the EU concerning training & support for Ukraine? One abstention (Hungary) and SFAIK, no “no’s”.

“Why do you think Sunni Arabs are going to ally with the West against China?”

Because Russia backs the Shiites in Iran. Duh. If you can’t figure that out, you are clueless when it comes to geopolitics. But we already knew that.

“Since when ROC and Israel have a dog in the fight?”

Since China and Iran are in the fight. Again, duh.

“Where are Africa and Latin America in the equation?”

Irrelevant, as they always are geopolitically (except for South Africa, who is slightly less irrelevant since they probably have a nuke).

Despite our best efforts to use Saudi fundamentalists to keep the Sunni Shiite conflict on a boil, détente will happen and the Islamic world will coalesce, most probably against the West which both Sunnis and Shiites regard as degenerate.

RE: Why do you think Sunni Arabs are going to ally with the West against China?

It’s not China, it’s IRAN, which WILL ally itself with Russia, which China Allie’s with.

RE: You do your thing, mate. It’s working for you...

Yes, I do think my approach is the most realistic under the circumstances

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