“THen I saw another article where China was urging their citizens to come home from Ukraine, Tajikastan, and Kazakhstan. Do the Chinese know something about Russian plans that we do not? The Ukraine part I could imagine might involve tactical nukes. What might the other 2 countries mean?”
Kazakhstan is an independent and sovereign nation about 3x the size of Ukraine, and shares a border with China as well as with Russia. As in Ukraine with the Holodomor of the 1930s, Kazakstan also suffered a similar fate in the 1930s.
Kazakhstan has a population of about 18 - 19 million (or, 7 people per square kilometer). For a comparison, Kazakhstan is about 2/3 the size of the US lower 48; but has the combined population of Michigan and Virginia.
There are between 3 and 4 million ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan (note: the Russian Baikonur Cosmodrome is in Kazakhstan); or, just under 20% of the total population.
Kazakhstan has refused to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, nor has it recognized the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine’s Donbas region and has not recognized their annexation by Russia.
Kazakhstan has close ties with China.
The concern is that Russia may fear losing its interests in Kazakhstan — including the Baikonur Cosmodrome — and make some kind of move against Kazakhstan.
Tajikistan is much smaller, but also shares a border with China (but does not share a border with Russia). With a population of around 10 million, it is far more densely populated than Kazakhstan. Tajikistan has a lot of natural resources. Its relations with Russia are “cordial.” However, ethnic Russians make up only a tiny fraction of the population (less than 6,000; or, less than 1%). It is 98% moslem.
However, with the recent Russian training camp incident in Russia where it is alleged that some Tajik volunteers opened fire on Russian officers and troops, apparently over some anti-moslem slur by a Russian officer, what was once “cordial” may become something less.
The ‘stans are becoming volatile.
Just last month, Xi essentially declared Kazakhstan to be under China's protection.
"No matter how the international situation changes, we will continue to resolutely support Kazakhstan in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity," Mr Xi said during a meeting with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, according to a Kazakh government statement.
Geographically, Kazakhstan essentially divides the rest of Central Asia from Russia.
It probably did not help that Tajikistan’s long time ruler gave Putin a 7 minute dressing down about neglecting material support for his country. I think the article I saw spoke of Putin sitting slumped with his head down and just taking it. I looked closely ate his face and while he looked humble and contrite, I thought I saw a gleam in his eye that said to me, “Just you wait, buddy.”