Posted on 10/10/2022 8:06:14 AM PDT by Tell It Right
no, I was not speaking figuratively, but using a measurement of distance.. I chose farther for that reason.
It’s all part of the Wallet Reduction Act. Nothing to see move along and sign up for welfare benefits
Thanks for the link. The chip industry is cyclical. Timing is the key. Unfortunately, it is a key which I have never possessed.
That was my strategy until last Thursday. Put 100% in money market until 09Nov. If GOP gets control, it will be almost like 1980 when Reagon took control but we still have 2 more years of this POS so I will tread lightly.
Even when Reagan got into office, it was still about two years before the stock market started really rallying. I believe October 1982 was around that time that the great Reagan bull market started.
You are so right. I failed to take into account an election was going to be rigged and a meat puppet frontman for leftist Marxist Lennonists running the USA into the ground was going to be installed. You know, I didn’t see that coming.
Nice try. The stock market peaked in Jan 2022, a full year after the meat puppet took office. So you were complaining about how horrible things were on the one hand, and enjoying your gains on the other hand. You got greedy. It was pretty obvious from a mile away what was going to happen.
It is the economy under the democrats that has caused the stocks to fall big time. Just the blocking of oil and gas has stopped recovery and the democrats will continue if they can.
After the republicans win on Nov 8 the economy will improve as long as McConnell can be stopped selling out to the communists Chinese again. Otherwise they open up drilling again and over ride and veto Biden and they certainly have more then enough evidence to impeach the incestuousness pedophile bribe taking blank blank etc etc.
2023 the democrats will be blocked and the economy will improve. In the months leading up to the Nov 2024 election the economy will start to go way up and when president Trump and vp DeSantis win the election the economy will again be firing on all cylinders.
I don’t think I will. Too many people saying it’s going down another 20-30%.
What fundamentals do you see improving? Inflation? Debt? Trade? Energy?
Think Postal Unions
To be honest, I don't do much factor investing. I don't look at catalysts A & B and think it's a good time to buy into asset classes C & D, but sell asset class E. I just watch overall trends, whatever the causes are.
The S&P 500 is down 25% from its ATH, even after adjusting for dividends. Historically when it'd go down that far it'd go down at least 30%. The question is, will it go down further? In 1987 and 2020 the answer was No. In 2000 and 2008 the answer was Yes (49% in 2000, 56% in 2008). IMHO the main determining factor is the speed it goes down. In 1987 and 2020 it went down sharply 33%, then rose back up sharply. I had been out of stocks in 2020 and was waiting for a 49+% drawdown until I saw it go down quickly -- so I jumped back in during the first week of March.
This year's drawdown has been going on for 9 months -- it looks more like 2000 (which took 2.5 years to drop 49%) or 2008 (which took 1.5 years to drop 56%). So I'm staying out of the S&P 500 until it's down 40%.
Three tech funds I like to invest in are down 67% (PRGTX), 56% (PRSCX), and 48% (PRMTX) from their ATH's, each of which was in 2021. It's tempting to go back into those, until you realize how low the NASDAQ went during the dot-com bubble bursting and it took 13 years IIRC to come back up to what it had been in March of 2000.
The same kind of story with all 36 mutual funds I like to invest in. They're down, but not down as far as each of their asset classes trended to go down in the past. Whatever causes each one to go up and down, it's the trends I try to follow.
I get it. But you do realize that in the Great Depression, no fund/stock was exempt. A few survived (movies, bras) because they were cheap.
I see a serious deterioration ahead, eventually reaching the “safest” stocks.
We’ll see.
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