Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iran Update, August 27, 2024
Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and his newly formed cabinet. Khamenei focused the meeting on addressing economic issues. Khamenei also expressed openness to nuclear negotiations with the West.
more https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-27-2024
Iran Update, August 28, 2024
Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri restated on August 28 the Iranian intent to attack Israel in retaliation for killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.[14] Bagheri said that Iran will conduct a “calculated” retaliation against Israel. Bagheri and other senior Iranian military officials have repeatedly said in recent weeks that Iran would conduct such an attack.[15] These statements are especially noteworthy given that these officials would be involved in the planning and execution of an attack CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran will likely attack Israel directly. Iran has likely delayed its attack until now in part to stoke anxiety and fear among the Israeli public.[16]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-28-2024
Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency report obtained by the Associated Press.[19] The Associated Press reported on August 29 that Iran possesses 164.7 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, citing an unreleased IAEA report.[20] This amount marks a 22.6 kilogram increase in Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium since the IAEA published its last report in May 2024.[21] The IAEA report also verified that Iran has completed the installation of eight cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow and 10 out of 18 planned cascades of IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz.[22] The Fordow cascades are not yet operational. The IAEA noted that the installation of two new cascades at Natanz is ongoing and that Iran continues to increase the number of operating cascades of IR-2m and IR-4 centrifuges.[23] Unspecified diplomats told Reuters on June 12 that Iran is installing new centrifuges at its nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, which increases the Iranian capacity to enrich uranium.[24] These diplomats and the IAEA report are presumably referring to the same cascades of centrifuges. The IAEA report said that Iran's overall stockpile of enriched uranium is 5,751.8 kilograms as of August 17.[25] This report follows continued statements from senior Iranian officials since early 2024, including a statement from a top foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, that have begun to normalize discussions about Iran's ability to procure nuclear weapons.[26]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-29-2024
An unspecified Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) official told Iraqi media that Iran is attempting to use its nuclear program to pressure Western countries as part of nuclear negotiations, which would be consistent with statements by the supreme leader and other Iranian officials indicating interest in renewed negotiations. It is not clear why this unspecified AEOI official would speak with Iraqi media before speaking to Iranian media. The level of access this official has within AEOI and Iranian policymaking is also unclear. The source told Iraqi media on August 30 that Iran does not aim to build a nuclear weapon but continues to pursue a nuclear program to pressure Western countries into reaching a new nuclear deal, which is consistent with statements from senior Iranian officials indicating the regime's willingness to reengage in nuclear negotiations with the West to relieve sanctions pressure on Iran.[7] International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi indicated on August 30 that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has agreed to a bilateral meeting in the “near future.”[8]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-30-2024
Iran Update, August 31, 2024
The Houthis claimed an attack targeting Liberian-flagged container ship M/V GROTON in the Gulf of Aden on August 31.[45] The Houthis claimed to target the M/V GROTON for transporting goods to Israel.[46] The Houthis claimed to launch drones and missiles at the vessel.[47] The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported two missiles exploded in proximity to the GROTON 130 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen, on August 31.[48] The Houthis previously targeted the GROTON with two missiles on August 3, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[49]
US Central Command destroyed two Houthi drones in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on August 30.[50]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-31-2024
Lebanese Hezbollah Representative to Iran Abdallah Safi al Din met with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Iran on September 1.[7] The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry reported that Safi al Din and Araghchi discussed the “latest situation of the anti-Israel front in Lebanon.”[8] Safi al Din and Araghchi likely discussed the Hezbollah drone and rocket attack targeting Israel in some capacity, though neither official would be responsible for planning or executing military operations against Israel. The United States sanctioned Safi al Din in May 2018 for acting as a conduit between Iran and Hezbollah and serving as an interlocutor between Iran and Hezbollah on financial issues.[9]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-1-2024
Low risk of attack on Israel from Iran until November 6. Such an attack would lead to the election in the USA being largely about Iran and they are afraid of that.
On the other hand, there will be varying attacks from Hezbollah, but no big ones.
xxx
Right or wrong, we'll know in November.
Iran Update, September 2, 2024
Iran is expected to “imminently” deliver ballistic missiles to Russia to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[8] An unspecified European official told Bloomberg on September 2 that Iran could begin shipping ballistic missiles to Russia “within a matter of days.”[9] European intelligence sources previously told Reuters in August 2024 that Iran and Russia signed a contract in December 2023 for Iran to deliver Ababil close-range ballistic missiles and Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.[10] The intelligence sources added that dozens of Russian military personnel are currently training in Iran on how to operate Fateh-360 missiles. Russia’s acquisition of Ababil or Fateh-360 ballistic missiles would likely allow Russian forces to strike Ukrainian near-rear targets while reserving Russia’s own missile stockpiles (such as Iskander missiles) for deep-rear Ukrainian targets, as CTP-ISW previously assessed.[11]
Iranian Supreme National Defense University President Brigadier General Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam stated on September 2 that keeping Israel in a state of anxiety is “no less than a military strike.”[12] Moghaddam claimed that Iran will have a “wise reaction” to Ismail Haniyeh’s death. Moghaddam’s statements are consistent with those from senior Iranian officials discussing Iran’s “psychological war” against Israel.[13] Moghaddam is not within the Iranian chain of command but his statements are representative of the larger ongoing public conversation in Iranian defense and security circles discussing the merits of employing “psychological warfare” against Israel.[14]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-2-2024
An outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) published on September 2 an analytical report examining the possible trajectories for fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah.[16] The report assessed that the most likely course of action in the coming months is a continuation of limited fighting around the Israel-Lebanon border. The report concluded that Israel is unlikely to launch a major military offensive into southern Lebanon due to:
Israeli forces being already stretched by militia activity in the Gaza Strip and West Bank;
The threat of an Iranian attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh;
Internal divisions within the Israeli government; and
The United States opposing an all-out war ahead of its presidential election.
The report ignored the repeated statements from senior Israeli officials vowing to drive Hezbollah forces out of southern Lebanon in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Israel-Lebanon War in 2006.[17]
It is unclear to what extent this report reflects Iranian leaders’ thinking about attacking Israel while deterring Israel from launching an offensive into Lebanon. The report nevertheless suggests that at least some in the Iranian security establishment are considering how the threat of an attack on Israel could shape Israeli decision-making vis-a-vis Hezbollah. Iran has repeatedly signaled its opposition to an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.[18] Iran relies on Hezbollah to establish deterrence vis-a-vis Israel and to project force and influence throughout the Levant. Hezbollah has also adopted an increasingly prominent role in helping Iran manage the Axis of Resistance in recent years.
Some of the missiles that Iran fired in its large-scale attack on Israel in April 2024 were much less accurate than previously understood, according to a report by the Associated Press.[19] The report cited experts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The report found that some of the Emad medium-range ballistic missiles that Iran used had a circular error probable of around 1.2 kilometers.[20] The circular error probable is a measurement of the median error radius of a weapon system. Tehran previously advertised that the Emad missile has a circular error probable of 50 meters, while international observers estimated that it was closer to 500 meters.[21] Both measurements suggest a much greater degree of accuracy than demonstrated in the Iranian April 2024 attack on Israel. Analysts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies assessed that Iran tried to strike Israeli F-35I fighter jet hangars at the Nevatim airbase with the Emad missiles.[22]
Iran using Emad missiles in another attack on Israel would increase the risk of an all-out war erupting against Israel and even the United States. The inaccuracy of these missiles would risk causing severe collateral damage, including civilian casualties, even if Iran does not intentionally target civilian areas in Israel.[23] Iranian military commanders have reportedly considered attacking military targets around Haifa and Tel Aviv, where the risk of harming civilians would be particularly high given the population density.[24]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-3-2024
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