Posted on 10/07/2022 3:32:34 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
As Hurricane Ian bore down on Florida, normally reliable computer forecast models couldn’t agree on where the killer storm would land. But government meteorologists are now figuring out what went wrong — and right.
Much of the forecasting variation seems to be rooted in cool Canadian air that had weakened a batch of sunny weather over the East Coast. That weakening would allow Ian to turn eastward to Southwest Florida instead of north and west to the Panhandle hundreds of miles away.
The major American computer forecast model -- one of several used by forecasters -- missed that and the error was “critical,” a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration postmortem of computer forecast models determined Thursday.
“It’s pretty clear that error is very consequential,” said former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, now a private meteorologist who wasn’t part of NOAA’s postmortem.
Still, meteorologists didn’t miss overall with their official Hurricane Ian forecast. Ian’s eventual southwestern Florida landfall was always within the “cone of uncertainty” of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track, although at times it was on the farthest edge.
But it wasn’t that simple. Computer forecast models, which weeks earlier had agreed on where Hurricane Fiona was going, were hundreds of miles apart as Ian chugged through the Caribbean.
The normally reliable American computer model, which had performed better than any other model in 2021 and was doing well earlier in the year, kept forecasting a Florida Panhandle landfall while the European model -- long a favorite of many meteorologists — and the British simulation were pointing to Tampa or farther south.
(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.com ...
That’s our local forcasters ... they are 100% spot on when they give their final forecast after the weather event.
I started tracking the depression just after it formed much further south than other storms this season. Most of the earlier depressions made a 60/70 degree turn to the northwest just after they became a storm hard right and went almost due north for about 3 days after they became a Tropical Storm or hurricane then turned more to the east. You’re right most forecasts were all over the map. I transposed the other tracks and put it straight over N. Ft. Myers. I feel almost sorry for projecting the track.
Oh please, we all take those forecasts with a VERY large grain of salt !
In other words the science of meteorology works. But it is easier to rely on someone's computer models than to look at the date on the ground and understand why stuff is happening.
Actually, if you look at post #12, the science is pretty good [the understanding of the physics that drives meteorological phenomenon]. But that science apparently is not in the computer models.
Considering the number of variables in the atmosphere, it’s surprising they get as much right as they do.
With a dynamic system that is always in flux, trying to pin point something exact is like trying to hit a moving target from the deck of a boat at sea.
Sometimes weather patterns can be very stable and offer a fairly high degree pf certainty. Other times not so much and anything can happen.
They learn from this and try to tweak the models for better success the next time. And NO meteorologist takes any pleasure in the widespread death and destruction that severe weather events can mete out. Their whole goal is to avoid that by warning people in time in spite of the harassment they take when they are off.
That map actually showed its track fairly accurately.
Indeed, can’t ever be wrong if you always update.
It should have been exact! After all they predict global warming 100 years from now to be 1/2 of 1 degree Fahrenheit.
For all we know about the atmosphere there is a lot we do not know. Not sure what this article is for other than tell us something that is already known.
I was expecting that it might move even farther east, but they were talking about it going up toward Tampa. If I lived on one of those islands like Sanibel, I think I would have evacuated.
These are the “man-made climate change” experts.
These are the “man-made climate change” experts.
“But trust us! Our computer model showing 1.5 degrees warming in 100 years is very accurate and trustworthy.”
“Models are always an abstraction of reality. Treat them for what they are.”
They are HUGE money-making machines. Trillions of dollars are flowing from the global warming models.
For sure considering its elevation above sea level and the fact that the right side of the storm is always the worst.
People , I think, vastly underestimate the power of water like is found in a storm surge. Add it to something like high tide, and it’s all the worst, and there was uncertainty about that all along.
Staying on an island when a hurricane is in the vicinity and heading in your general direction is NEVER a good choice.
Hurricane prediction models are not the same as alleged “global warming “ models.
Weather is like a woman. Unpredictable.
*ducks*
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