The NY law will never be found to be constitutional. It’s only a question of whether the circuit court will do it,or leave it to the supremes.
But the real question is whether the Supremes will take one hour now to slap down the circuit court's stay of the TRO, telling all of the lower courts that they are serious, or if they will do the "business as usual" thing, leaving people on both coasts subject to 20 more years of right infringements.