“Putin is pressuring Lukashenko to send troops to Poland to stop NATO weapons transfers through the area.”
If Putin is pressuring Lukashenko to do that, Lukashenko would be insane to comply.
Russia is losing this war, on several levels. Belarus sees that. Lukashenko may issue such an order, but if he does I think he will be deposed.
Poland is capable of crushing Belarus one-on-one.
“The warning to Putin is that if he uses a nuke on Ukraine, he loses Belarus and Kalingrad.”
Could be.
US, NATO, Poland and Ukraine have been preparing for a Belarus attack in the weapons transfer corridor for months now. They’re ready.