Your thinking is sound.
We’re in a limited war with Russia. What exactly this means is continuously subject to change. Russia is constrained by the probable response by the west; and, visa versa.
You don’t want to go straight to an all-out war with Russia if they use one or two tactical nukes. The scenario you describe - wiping out all Russian forces in Ukraine - might be sufficient. You want to get the job done and still leave an incentive (another level of escalation) for Putin to seek a negotiated settlement.
Then you see what Putin does.
Putin is in way over his head. This thing was supposed to be over three or five days after it started. At this point, Russia has taken huge loses of its standing army, and has dipped deeply into its so-called reserve. And, it’s being pushed back in three places.
Possibly Putin could cut his loses with a negotiated settlement at this point. But, Putin is currently threatening to use the nuclear option as re-doubling the use of conventional force is clearly not realistic.
Hey, why not resort to threats? If Putin gets his way with threats, then the threats work. Hitler got away with a lot with threats. But, success with threats emboldened him. In 1939, Hitler did not think England would go to war over Poland. When England did, Hitler turned to his foreign minister and said, now what do we do? The thing is, France could have stopped Hitler by occupying the Ruhr, and France and England could have called Hitler’s bluff over the Sudetenland. Standing up to dictators is what we learned is how you prevent aggression, not giving in to threats.
I’m not going to say threatening to use the nuclear option is Putin’s last trick. Actually using tactical nukes is his next trick, and then threatening and using strategic nuclear weapons are his next following tricks. The old-fashioned communists wouldn’t do such a crazy thing, because they actually believed that communism would eventually prevail over capitalism. But, in what does Putin believe? Money, mansions, yachts and hot chicks.
Putin’s fable about the origins of Russia, that it is a unique civilization, etc., etc., is what he does to cajole stupid and drunk Russians into joining his army and getting themselves killed against well-trained and well-equipped Ukrainians. While this looks pathetic to us, Russians have little or no access to independent information.
Generally a good post, but a few things worth pointing out.
Hitler didn’t have nukes. Putin does. Hitler never should’ve been appeased but a miscalculation with Putin is very different than a miscalculation with Hitler. I do believe Putin will commit very irrational acts if he’s sure to go down. Over the last 22 years Putin has carefully constructed a very loyal inner-ring who are loyal to the death. Not saying appease Putin, but I am saying a miscalculation would be catastrophic. You’re right, the commies probably wouldn’t have used strategic nukes, but Putin will if he has to and sees no way out.
The real moral of the story is no additional nations should be allowed to acquire nukes. Iran needs to be removed from the map if necessary to prevent them from obtaining nukes. Too lake for NK.
We’ll see how this situation ends, but it’s going to get worse before it’s gets better and the Biden regime is the last group we want negotiating or making decisions on our behalf.