“So what if Ukraine joined NATO. NATO was never going to invade Russia.”
Of course you are correct. But what Putin saw was a Ukraine that was moving out of the Russian economic sphere, and into the EU economic sphere. A Ukraine that would become wealthier for its citizens, than Russian citizens. This would shame Putin and Russia.
Putin invaded Crimea to stop Ukraine and Shell oil explorations in the Northern Black Sea. That Ukraine would become an oil and gas supplier to Europe, thus competing with Russia.
Lastly, Ukraine applied for NATO membership, but this was killed by Germany and France. Because they were/are addicted to cheap Russian gas. That they bought at the equivalent of $20/ barrel of oil.
Agree seems like a fair take. I read once that Russia needs 80-100$ a barrel for oil to meet their domestic spending. The reports of Russian economy doing well seems like pure propaganda like chines gdp. Of course reported by Chinese. Pretty sure Russian govt is subsidizing domestic economy to keep numbers down otherwise they would have a full blown revolt. People don’t fall out of windows, boats, and down stairs when things are going fine. Clock is ticking and not sure how long Russia can keep that up. When that happens things will get interesting