The question is how many new troops a month is Ukraine training and equipping?
The current problem for Russia is that Ukraine has surprised them by being able to mount attacks on two separate fronts while Russia only has the manpower to defend one.
Those 300K that Russia is now mobilizing will get them back to parity, but Ukraine’s army is also continuing to grow and I don’t think 300K would be enough in six months.
I would agree that the RF has been doing the SMO “ON THE CHEAP” so far and has been outnumbered 3 or 4 to 1. Even so, bear in mind that the RF has basically taken 4 oblasts and severely degraded the capabilities of the AFU.
I know that that if one is mainly relying on “Western sources” that that won’t be believed, but it IS true. With no air cover and with artillery that is grossly inferior in quality and quantity to the RF’s the Zelensky regime has been throwing valuable lives away in “counteroffensives” unsupported by air power or significant artillery across open steppes. The armor losses have been huge as well. Although it will probably be years before the truth is out, I believe the rumors of General Zaluzhny advising against the Zelensky regime/US/UK offensive tactics are probably true.
Because of the referenda the RF will now be legally and doctrinally able to use as much of its regular armed forces as it wants. Moreover, the mobilization of reservists means there is relatively little tune-up needed for those soldiers. The AFU, on the other hand, has lost most of its experienced, professional soldiers, and conscripts with a month or two or three of training aren’t going to be very effective against regular army and reservists, assuming the conscripts can be equipped fully, which is unlikely. What is certain is that the armor, artillery, and ammunition situation for the AFU, which is already critical, will get worse.
Almost everything that gets posted here is an inversion of the truth because it is coming from MSM and British sources (oddly, people seem to forget about all the lies from these sources that have been exposed, beginning with the “Ghost of Kiev”.)
Here is today’s commentary from a commentator from Belarus who does a very granular analysis of the war every day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTRKqU__0kg
Here’s is a British former lawyer who has been analyzing geopolitics for years and is commenting on the Ukraine daily (the link is to today).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_U1HhA4z9DA