"It would be very easy for Russia to “withdraw” from all contested rural areas of Kherson and Mikolaiv oblasts on the north side of the river (which aren’t densely populated and would require a manufactured border to maintain), then draw a border from Vasylivka to Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia."
Just thought it worth revisiting because several sources over the last 48 hours have suggested that the TWO highlighted parts of my theory are actually happening at this very minute.
https://www.ukrinform.net/.....state-border-in-zaporizhzhia-region.html
There's also speculation that this is because Ukraine is expected to launch attacks south from there, and the retreat from Kherson will go south of the river to repel the attack if it comes from Zaporizhzhia city.
This could explain the rapid gains on the north side but it could also mean that the Duma, having agreed in principle to the annexation, is hedging its bets on maybe partitioning the westmost two Oblasts - it can't hold the cities on the north side and it has insufficient power to attack Zaporizhzhia City.
I don't think Ukraine would accept that, but short of committing to full city destruction using aerial bombardment (HE, thermobarics, or tactical nukes) it just isn't possible for Russia to take those cities over. Maybe next spring, if they can regroup and field a far bigger assault, but can their current, worn out troops manage it over winter? Not a chance.
And, of course, there's that rapid retreat and unexpected rapid gains on the north side - Russian forces could be out and south of Kherson within a week.
“And, of course, there’s that rapid retreat and unexpected rapid gains on the north side - Russian forces could be out and south of Kherson within a week.”
I can see them falling back to Crimea; because, after all, Crimea is Russia’s “jewel in the crown” vis-a-vis Ukraine. I can see Russia giving up Donbas, and eastern Ukraine, and making its stand in Crimea.