You need to understand Vlad is not interested in the western half, only the Ethnic Russian provinces.
I have no dog in this fight, but I don’t see how a Putin/Russian victory leads to ‘peace’.
The Ukies have a hatred for Russians, the shelling of the Donbass by the Ukies since 2014 has the Russians having a hate for the Ukies…there is NO chance of reconciliation or co- habitation.
Nasty divorce, split of property ( country), “ court” orders, etc….the only question is who will be the impartial “ judge”? China? UN? the West? In any case, as in ALL wars, relocation, forced or voluntary, will occur. The longer this conflict goes on, the deeper the parties dig in their heels.
With the EU economy being crippled, ( Germany and England especially), and EU being fractured ( Hungary, Italy, and growing) negotiations must be started before winter, if not, the EU is in deep do do, extreme civil unrest, shortages, unemployment, manufacturing decimated, etc…Vlad wins by any amount of reasoning. He wins BIG when the civil unrest in the EU starts ( the protests and rioting are already occurring) and calls for EU leadership change occurs.