That was your problem.
Counting on forecast models from that far out. Even meteorologists know better than to count on anything in as a dynamic system as the earth’s atmosphere. And as warm as the Gulf waters were, strengthening should not have surprised anyone.
Did you ever hear the saying, “Don’t count your chickens until they are hatched”?
I know people are tired of the gloom and doom that the MSM puts out and more often than not it’s not as bad as they make it out to be. But not always. And not enough to dismiss any one particular storm offhand as nothing to worry about.