This is looking more like the track Joe Bastardi was talking about on Saturday. Bad news for TBA as it comes ashore while still a hurricane and hits smack on, but good news in that it’s faster moving and doesn’t sit there piling water into the bay for 24+ hours. If the track is moved farther east, it hits south of TBA and spares the bay the surge, but will hit Sarasota area as a strong hurricane, so not good for the folks to the south. Euro model is now predicting this.
A hurricane or two ago there was a forecast for a huge storm surge for TB that never materialized. It seems you have to have real bad luck or live in a real bad spot to get stuck by one of these.