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Well, there are several reasons I see it happening.

1) The Dems are depending on abortion, climate change, and J6 to carry them over. These are extremely marginal issues and people react to them at the polling, but many will swing away because of 2).

2) Republicans aren’t leading with their own issues, but rather voters are looking to repudiate Dems on the economy, immigration, jobs, and so on. This includes the independents, who didn’t vote in many primaries. Biden is very unpopular, but the disdain for him is lessening as gas gets a little less expensive.

There are three outcomes that I see as possible.

a) The red wave - Rs 245 House 53 Senate
Democrats lay off messing with votes just like Virginia. Too many people watching. Almost got caught last time. Dems go crazy after the fact and blame Russia, Latinos, etc. They then go further in the hole as 2024 approaches and the economy weakens.

b) the red wave - Rs 230 House 51 Senate
Dems mess with votes in certain key states. AZ, PA, MI all have people messing with voting in Maricopa, Philly, and Detroit. Who knows what happened, but the results are reasonable. Dems weaken slightly as there’s no real mandate.

c) the blue wave - Rs 220 House 49 Senate
Dems pull out all the plugs on fraud regardless of Republican vigilance. Some people might get caught, but there are contingency plans. I think it’s impossible for Ds to maintain the house, just too many indie voters voting R. They will push Kelly, Fetterman, Warlock, etc over the finish line.

The real problem is that if the Dems lose the legislature completely, then Biden will use the DOJ to harass voters and funders of the Republicans. If people like Blake Masters/Jon Gibbs win, then you’re going to see Biden go nuts with subpoenas and so on, as the left will push for investigations. Of course, the hypocrisy will be lost on the Dems.