Or, this is the end of the “special military operation”, and the start of something more like a military operation. No more militarized police units, to be replaced with infantry and arty.
The Ruskies are having their plebiscite in the regions they control, which, yeah, will be a sham, but will give them (internal) cover to consolidate the territory that they’ve always said they’ve wanted, and then turn their attention to their two other stated goals. Forever foreclosing Ukraine’s entry into NATO, and “De-Nazifying” the Uke government. This last doesn’t have to be a Russian-controlled puppet regime, they’ll probably settle for a neutered and generally pro-Russian regime, with nominal independence as long as they mind their p’s and q’s.
They’ll settle for an outcome that saves face and allows Putin to remain in power, because they aren’t going to be in any position to demand more than that.