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Putin will be ousted in some manner and his regime of gangsters and crooks ended in favor of a new democratic order.

I think the 1st part of that may occur, the latter is very iffy. It would likely take trauma similar to what Japan suffered in WW2 to change Russia's foundations, and with Japan we had the advantage of a still revered Emperor willing to work with us...

As for a Ukrainian "full victory", I think that to do it in under 5 years our level of weapons support must go up a lot. How do we supply enough HIMARS, for example, when the munitions (rockets) mfgr. is still studying* how to ramp up production less than 100%, and major orders are coming in, from Poland, for one...?

*I'd have never believed that had I not heard it right out of the CEO's mouth a few days ago! :-(

HIMARS inventory and production are issues, but other similar weapons are available in the US arsenal, like ATACAMS missiles and MLRS and GMLRS rocket artillery. My guess is that HIMARS was chosen as easier for the Ukrainians to use without extensive training. With Ukrainians now receiving training on NATO bases, my guess is that they will soon be able to use a fuller set of missiles and rocket artillery.

As for Russia, a catastrophic military defeat, major troop casualties, economic distress, and the discrediting of the regime's narrative supporting its legitimacy are at hand or in the offing. With Ukraine beginning to advance and economic sanctions biting hard on Russian state finances and the private economy, the West has considerable leverage.

Consider what could happen if Putin is out in some manner, a military-political junta is installed in power, and they announce a desire for a truce in the field and peace negotiations. That is easy enough to arrange, but if Russia experiences a military collapse, Ukraine continues to get Western military help, and most economic sanctions are kept in place, Russia's new regime will be on shaky ground and a democratic system and nuclear retrenchment could be required by the West.

For the US, the winning hand would be the installation of a friendly new government in Russia that assures access to Russia's natural resources and denies support for China's imperial ambitions. One can hope.