Someone on this thread said that Russia is now pushing hard for a negotiated settlement. I don’t think Russia would be doing that if it was kicking ass. Russia certainly did not expect this much resistance from Ukraine, and Russia fears a quagmire. Ukraine is not France in 1940.
I think the momentum may be turning in Ukraine’s favor, but it is very fragile at this point; anything can happen. Ukraine’s counter-offensive is still in its infancy, so the next three or four months will give us all a better idea where this thing is heading. If, in three or four months Ukraine is spent, then this turns into a partisan and insurgent war, which could last for years.
Unfortunately, the west is calibrating military aid to Ukraine now. That is managing Putin and his incompetent army but not allowing Ukraine enough fire power to throw out the invaders. Putin will be allowed to, as Macron said openly, “save face”, keep the stolen land bridge and no more. The Russian fairy taledreams of Novorossiya and Odesa are gone forever. Let alone Kyiv, of course.