Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 4 September 2022

Various driveby media television networks ^ | 4 September 2022 | Various Self-Serving Politicians and Big Media Screaming Faces

[rodguy911]

I would love to think that McCarthy won't get speaker. But, reality tells me otherwise. That's why we have to do our best to get him to do the right thing. We can create real stuff to force his hand on almost any issue and if he still prevails we can make him miserable indefinitely. Lots at stake we can't let rinos take over.For a while however we may have to deal with them.but not from weakness.

[rodguy911]

If you don't raise rates, inflation will continue. Inflation is far more damaging than a recession. The Fed is so politicized that Powell may delay or reduce rate hikes until after the elections. Keep the stock market artificially high.

We both know that. But so do the rats. They also know it's(high rates creating a recession) a kick in the ass come November. One they won't recover from any time soon. So if they can BS their way out of higher rates,even putting it off for a few months,which they might get, they will pull out all the stops for sure.

We already see they have no fear of using up the entire crude oil inventory that was only supposed to be used for emergencies not political emergencies.

They only care about power. They could care less about the country and its welfare.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I can tell you that blacks DID NOT comply because of the Tuskegee experiments, I TOTALLY understand why they don’t trust ANYTHING medical the government DEMANDS!! Hispanics I don’t know why, it could very well have to do with their legal status in this country they could have been afraid of their legal status being found out!!

[DanZ]

Look for a coming spike in global oil and gas prices.

Yes and No. Germany and England will have issues, as some of south America, but for the most part, Russian Gas will go to Japan (Sakhalin Gas - BIG gas fields), China, India.

The Polacks will reopen their coal fields, the Checks, Slovaks, Hungarians will also use coal and Russian gas.

Italy will get gas/oil from Libya, and Israel has a HUGE Gas/Oil field that is almost ready to go to cover Israel, Italy and Spain.

France is pretty much all set with Nuclear and they will get oil/gas from Algeria

[kabar]

Not so fast. Zero Hedge did an excellent analysis: Russia Vows To Halt All Oil Exports To Countries That Impose "Completely Absurd" Price-Cap

To achieve those goals, the allies agreed to explore a new mechanism that aims to impose a ceiling on Russian oil prices. The idea behind this price cap is to permit countries that have not imposed import bans to buy Russian oil as long as it is priced at or below a predetermined price. The cap could be enforced via limits on availability of European insurance for Russian oil cargoes as well as shipping services and US finance.

While G7 leaders have not indicated where the price cap would be set, it must be lower than the $80/bbl at which Russia’s Urals grade trades today (a $32/bbl discount to Brent) and higher than Russia’s marginal cost of maintaining production levels, estimated at around $40/bbl to ensure Russia’s earnings are reduced while production is maintained.

A $50-60 per barrel price cap would likely serve the G7 goals of reducing oil revenues for Russia while assuring barrels continue to flow.

But it remains unclear how effective a price-cap regime would be, since for the price-cap to work, oil importers like India, China, and Turkey - which have significantly increased their purchases of heavily-discounted Russian grades - would need to agree to participate to access even cheaper oil.

Furthermore, as we previously detailed, there are three scenarios as to what happens next:

Scenario 1: Russia does not cooperate and retaliates - a 3 mbd cut would likely deliver a $190/bbl oil price

Scenario 2: China and India don’t cooperate - the end of the European insurance dominance

Scenario 3: Russia fully re-routes exports from west to east but loses pricing power, prices stabilize in low-$100s

There has so far been no reaction to the headlines...

Which we suspect reflects the market's reality check that this G-7 plan has no chance of becoming operational as to implement a cap, diplomats will have to convince European Union member nations to amend its sixth round of sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine - and that may still prove to be tough. That package, which prohibits the purchase of Russian oil starting Dec. 5, included a ban on the use by third countries of the bloc’s companies for oil-related insurance and financial services.

“The price cap fundamentally lacks impact unless the G-7 can persuade the other main buyers (i.e. China, India, Turkey, etc) to sign up,” Christopher Haines, a global crude analyst at consultant Energy Aspects, said in an emailed response to questions.

“They are all reluctant despite the offer of exemptions from Western financial and shipping insurance sanctions. Meanwhile Russia will be determined to undermine the policy for both political and economic reasons.”

Russia said Friday that it won’t sell oil to nations that impose a price cap on its oil. “We simply won’t interact with them on such non-market principles,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call, adding that Russian oil will find alternative markets.

Oil is a global, fungible commodity. Will OPEC+ abide by caps? The Saudis and Russians account for 25% of the exportable oil. They can reduce production, which will increase the price hence giving them the same revenues for less exports.

You are making so many unrealistic assumptions about how easy it will be to replace Russian oil and gas. It is far from easy. You need to construct the infrastructure to receive the product from other sources. The Italians, British, French, and Germans are not so sanguine. They are planning emergency measures, some of which are already being implemented. There is no deus ex machina that will save them.

"Berlin and Leipzig Germany will see the first of a series of planned “Monday protests” against soaring energy bills. Protesters in Berlin will rally from 7pm outside the offices of the Greens under the slogan “Enough is enough — protest, don’t freeze.”

[Alas Babylon!]

Let’s bring the co-conspirators together:

Fauci, Birx, Pence, Barr, Mitch, Wray and Milley.

[kabar]

Scholz promises 65 bln euros to shield Germans through tough winter

[kabar]

Mortgage payment-to-income ratio in the US… it is at same level as the housing bubble peak in 2006…

And from September, the Fed is supposed to start full scale QT, selling $35 Billion MBS per month…probably sending mortgage rates higher.

Something is gonna break soon.

[kabar]

The list is much larger. hundreds, if not thousands have been involved in this conspiracy.

[DanZ]

Scenario 3 is most likely, and OIL will be in the 80-140 range for some time. It will be in the $80.00 range for the next 12-24 month simply due to global recession. China is already in a recession, India will be soon, Europe is in a recession as is the US. The coming Stock market crash and recession will be similar to 2008 or possibly 1973, it may be worse.

We here in the U.S. will see the Market take a dive first, and Recession will be called possibly in Q4 or early 2023. Unemployment will rise and will be published in official documents probably by Nov.

Oil majors are starting to plan Two-Four years out already for the rebound sometime in 2025 or so.

Russia and OPEC will work together to keep the price of oil in the 80-120 range. Once above $120 shale in U.S. comes on line.

Buying XOM and other U.S. based oil big boys over the next few month may prove to be a profitable trade.

Europe has NO pricing power on Russian GAS and the rest of the world does not care what happens to Germany or France or England, all the other European countries are small potatoes.

Italy and Greece are the BIG problems because of DEBT issues and with Italian elections in the next few weeks, Italy could start the process of EXITING the EU and THAT would be big news

[DanZ]

Take a look at this data - my financial guy

these charts are eye popping

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-rule-of-20-why-the-bear-market-remains/

[DanZ]

"Berlin and Leipzig Germany will see the first of a series of planned “Monday protests” against soaring energy bills. Protesters in Berlin will rally from 7pm outside the offices of the Greens under the slogan “Enough is enough — protest, don’t freeze.”

My personal opinion on the Kraut, for the last Thirty years or so they have been going more and more left and wind/solar. My opinion - like that of Marie Antionette - let them eat wind and Solar, really enjoy what you voted for for the past 1 1/2 generations.

And the Krauts and the majority of Europeans have no military

[kabar]

Scenario 3 is most likely, and OIL will be in the 80-140 range for some time. It will be in the $80.00 range for the next 12-24 month simply due to global recession. China is already in a recession, India will be soon, Europe is in a recession as is the US. The coming Stock market crash and recession will be similar to 2008 or possibly 1973, it may be worse.

From the Financial Times:

Russian oil exports fell by about 1mn barrels per day in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine in February, as many buyers in Europe self-sanctioned and limited purchases amid public outcry. But while the International Energy Agency warned Russian output — normally above 10mn b/d — could decline by 3mn b/d within months, it has proven to be more resilient, thanks to India.

Prior to the invasion, India imported almost no Russian oil. By July it was importing close to 1mn b/d of Moscow’s heavily discounted crude, or about 1 per cent of global supply, according to Vortexa, which tracks shipments.

Russia’s ability to maintain exports has helped global oil prices fall from around $120 a barrel in early June to around $95 a barrel, or about the level they were before the war.

Because Russia produces more than 10 per cent of global oil supplies, officials in the US and Europe are worried about sanctioning its barrels out of the market. Losing a quarter of Russian supply could cause oil prices to surge.

From a July Zero Hedge article: Oil Price Could Hit "Stratospheric" $380 If Russia Retaliates To G7 Oil Price Cap: JPMorgan

However, it didn't take long for the same G7 motley crew to realize that they have a major problem on their hands: as JPM's commodity desk notes, given Russia’s strong fiscal position, the country can cut up to 5 mbd of production without excessively hurting its economic interest. Meanwhile, a 5mbd cut would spark a Europe-wide depression, confirming that once again Europe had not even done the simple math.

Scenario 1: Russia does not cooperate and retaliates — a 3 mbd cut would likely deliver a $190/bbl oil price

The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia would not to participate (which, of course, it won't as why would Putin agree to produce oil at a lower price than clearing) and instead retaliates by reducing exports. In fact, as JPM head commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva notes, Russia had already showed its willingness to withhold supplies of natural gas to EU countries that refused to meet payment demands. Indeed, emboldened by a surging current account surplus, after entirely cutting off the flow of piped gas to the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Finland and Denmark, since the start of June Gazprom has reduced the flow of gas to Italy by 50% and to Germany by 60%—though claiming the latter reductions in June were due to maintenance-related issues.

As a result, the EU as a whole is now receiving 53% less gas from Russia than it averaged before the start of the war. Withholding gas volumes from Europe comes at a personal cost to Russia—as a measure to manage the reduced export-related flows, Russia has had to allow for natural production declines. According to Gazprom, the company will reduce its production by 17 Bcm this year, or 3% of 2021 production. That said, history suggests that there is far more capability for production reductions in Russia. For example, in 2019 Gazprom production was ~500 Bcm, while in 2020 Gazprom production fell to ~453 Bcm. So far in 2022, Gazprom production has been down 20 Bcm yoy, suggesting further declines are likely relative to Gazprom’s current forecast.

Unlike gas, which accounts for about one-fifth of Russia’s budget revenues, oil makes up over half. Russia’s policymakers will likely address the challenge of the oil price cap from the position of strength, and as JPM concedes, "Russia’s starting fiscal position is strong." Besides, the global oil market has tightened, while the strong balance of payments opens room to accommodate lower export volumes without inflicting too much financing pain. Which brings up the key question: How much oil production can Russia realistically cut without hurting its economic interest?

In answering this question, JPM notes that Russia's fiscal position strong: low deficit, low debt.

Russia’s sovereign balance sheet remains strong even as half of CBR’s reserves were frozen. Last year, Russia’s federal budget recorded a modest surplus of 0.4% of GDP or $7bn, while this year, as things stand, is tracking a modest deficit of less than 1% of GDP. Financing needs are equally low. The National Wellbeing Fund—effectively, a government deposit at the CBR—reached an equivalent of $198bn by May 2022, with $116bn in usable funds. Treasury cash balances exceed ~$85bn. Gross sovereign debt stood at 15.9% of GDP (~$279bn) as of end-2021.

What about prices? According to JPM's commodities team (whose full note is available to pro subscribers), given the high levels of stress in the oil market, a cut of 3.0 mbd could cause global Brent price to jump to $190/bbl, while the most extreme scenario of a 5 mbd slash in production could drive oil price to a stratospheric $380/bbl.

Given these various scenarios, who caves first? IMO Europe will seek a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine and agree to eliminate sanctions against Russia. The domestic pressure will be too great and the long term damage to their economies will be catastrophic.

We here in the U.S. will see the Market take a dive first, and Recession will be called possibly in Q4 or early 2023. Unemployment will rise and will be published in official documents probably by Nov

We are already in a recession and if the Fed does the right thing, it will be a deep recession. So far, the Fed has done no real QT. When it does, things will get worse in a hurry. We have not seen the full impact of increased fertilizer costs on food prices. And diesel fuel remains over $5 a gallon. September will see the real beginning of the downturn.

Russia and OPEC will work together to keep the price of oil in the 80-120 range. Once above $120 shale in U.S. comes on line.

We not only have a supply problem, it is a refinery problem. Why Diesel-Fuel Costs Are Really Rising

You’ve heard a lot about gas prices, and hopefully at some point you’ve noticed that, as bad as it is to fill up your sedan or SUV, the cost of diesel fuel is skyrocketing even faster. Today, we’re taking a deep dive into why diesel-fuel costs are rising so quickly — and no, President Biden, it’s not just because oil companies are “greedy.” It has a lot to do with the shutdown of six refineries, the upcoming closure of a seventh, and the fact that the U.S. has built only one new oil refinery since 1977.

Why are we experiencing these stunning fuel prices? Because we’re getting back to pre-pandemic levels of demand, while our refineries are pumping out about a million fewer gallons of fuel per day than they did before the pandemic. And you know what happens when you mix lower supply with higher demand.

Right now, someone is likely shouting, “Reopen those closed refineries, then!” But that’s not so easy.

The former PES refinery complex in Philadelphia is being demolished. The Shell refinery is slated to become an “alternative fuels complex,” and it’s a similar transition for the Tesoro refinery. The HollyFrontier refinery is already converted to processing biofuels, as is the Dakota Prairie refinery. (Certain environmentalists will denounce the greedy oil companies and praise the companies producing environmentally friendly biofuels, never stopping to check and realize that many of them are the same companies.)

Wait, I haven’t even gotten to the bad news: Chemical maker Lyondell Basell Industries announced in April that the company will permanently close its Houston crude-oil refinery by the end of 2023. That plant refines about 263,000 barrels of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel per day.

We almost never build oil refineries in the U.S. anymore. According to the EIA, the newest refinery in the United States is the Targa Resources Corporation’s site in Channelview, Texas, which began operating in 2019 and processes 35,000 barrels per day. Before that, the newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity was Marathon’s facility in Garyville, La. That facility came online in 1977.

And so, President Biden’s fuming about oil companies not drilling and demanding they “use it or lose it” is something of a red herring; it would not do U.S. oil consumers a lot of good to dramatically expand the supply of crude oil if there isn’t enough refinery capacity to turn that oil into useful products. And right now, there are no major projects planned to build new oil refineries or expand capacity at the existing ones.

In short, successive administrations, consumers, and the cultural zeitgeist made it clear to the oil industry that their product did not have a future — and so oil companies reduced their investments at all stages of seeking out, drilling, obtaining, and refining their product.

[kabar]

Depressing. The worst is yet to come. We are headed into the perfect storm. Our ballooning national debt with debt servicing costs consuming more and more of our budget; the exhaustion of the Medicare Trust Fund (HI) by 2028; an aging population with 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day thru 2030; an endless war in Ukraine; and the Dem socialists in charge until at least 2025.

We are beginning to look like Japan. Permanent stagflation.

[kabar]

We should take no joy from the demise of Europe. The European Union is our biggest trading partner, bigger than China. We are not immune to a global recession/depression.

[spokeshave]

[kabar]

Trump topped the SPR off with cheap oil. Biden will at some point fill it with the highest priced oil.

[Fishtalk]

What is SPR?

[kabar]

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

[Fishtalk]

The Sunday political talk shows 0/11/22

Below the FreeRepublic Sunday talk show thread link.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4092465/posts?page=5

The major talking points of the day

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X NEWS SUNDAY (Fox Network): New permanent anchor Shannon Bream: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.); Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) ; former professional baseball pitcher Andy Pettitte; U.S. Ambassador to the U.K. Jane Hartley. Panel: Mollie Hemingway, Peter Doocy, Jonathan Swan, Leftist political reporter for Axios, and Whine Williams.

Highlight of Fox News Sunday:

SHANNON BREAM BEGINS TO HOST!!

Link to Fox News Sunday Below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIpXaoxg3ss

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MEET THE PRESS (NBC): Hosted by Chuck U. Toad: VP Kamala Harris. Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Matt Gorman, Claire McCaskill and Amy Walter—just another easily forgotten group of angry Leftists slinging anti-American balderdash.

Highlight of Meet the Press:

Kamala Harris ??? First time I’ve seen her as a guest.

Link to Meet the Press show below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moxWP0RmQ7k

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FOFACE THE NATION (CBS): Margaret Brennan anchors: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.); retired Gen. Frank McKenzie; British Ambassador Karen Pierce; Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova; Jackson, Miss. Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba.

Highlight of Face the Nation

From all different places on this guest list.

Below the link to Face the Nation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAPXJp1Ut1E

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THIS WEEK (ABC): Hosted by Little Georgie Steponallofus: ? No guests listed—just the panel. Panel: Chris Christie, Donna BrazileNut, Mary Jordan and David Sanger–more Fat RINOs and Left-wing Propagandists!

Highlight of This Week with George Stephanopolous

No guests?

Link to This Week below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mhuJ1Kui5o

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STATE OF THE UNION (CNN): Anchored by Jake Toe-Tapper: Sore Loser and Suicide assistant Hillary Clinton; British Ambassador Karen Pierce; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (‘bout no recession); Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). Panel:—Tapper doesn’t always have a panel, but when he does, it is made up of fruits and nuts!

Highlight of State of the Union

All liberal guests.

Link to State of the Union below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrpGSYUOtPo

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SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES (FNC): The Show to watch! Hosted by Maria Bartiromo: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy; Former Trump Admin. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; Republican Senate candidate from Georgia Herschel Walker; Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas).

Sunday Morning Futures:
Kevin McCarty bores, Mike Pompeo begins his political campaign

Link below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BUVTYbf7kg