I think 95% sure Kharkiv and Oddessa will be included. ZNPP must be out of long-range arty.
Russians will go around / above N/Mikolaev and Oddessa until they connect to Transnistria. These will be sieged until a surrender, with no other options, no NATO cavalry coming.
Ethic Russian Kharkiv the Russians can take anytime. The current to-and-fro is just a force-reducing mechanism by the Russians. Let the Ukes advance, overextend, cut them off, destroy them. This is just a cat and mouse strategy that works in Russia’s favor. But at the moment of Russia’s choosing, they can send entire new divisions of fresh troops against Kharkiv, and an exhausted Uke defensive force there.
Your map will probably be close to the final result, give or take an oblast.
Too bad that Bojo the Clown, channeling Fantasy Churchill, blew up the April negotiations, the best deal that Ukraine was EVER likely to get.