The Ukrainian troops selected to carry out this operation clearly had advanced training. Some sources report that the British did the training and MI-6 had the lead in planning the operation. The CIA’s role appears to have been providing support on the information warfare front (i.e., getting Ignatius to tee up an article). Ukrainian sources are privately bitching that someone leaked the op to the Russians. It was an elaborate ambush. These are troops Ukraine could not afford to lose. There was a substantial investment in time and money to train them for this mission. I estimate at least two months were devoted to the training and equipping of these two attack elements.
This was not the brain child of the Ukrainians. This has the fingerprints of western intelligence all over it. That is why there were so many western reporters on hand. If Ukraine had succeeded, the operation would have dominated western news coverage. “Ukraine’s stunning victory.” Success would have bought Zelensky and Ukraine more time.
But this was a failure and it is likely to have some rather nasty side effects. The Ukrainians have lost some, if not all, faith in the competence and promises of the British and the American intelligence offices. I am pretty sure the Ukrainians were promised that this would be a swift victory and would catch the Russians with their pants down.
Just consider how things would look if Ukraine had pulled this off. With Ukrainian forces in control of the ZNP plant complex, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection team would arrive and would have certified that Russia was shelling the place. In fact, with the IAEA present, it would have been crazy for Russia to try to take the facility back. Note that the IAEA team came prepared to leave some of its members behind. I would not be surprised to learn that the head of the IAEA team was briefed on the upcoming operation and was prepared to play the role assigned to him. Whoops. Russian killed those plans along with almost 100 Ukrainian troops involved in the operation.
One Telegram channel offers a dire assessment of the Ukrainian Kherson offensive:
The second wave of Ukrainian offense on Kherson ends in a predictable disaster, 2000 or more KIA, and between 5 and 6 thousands wounded. The hospitals in all the nearby large cities nearby are full. Yet, Ukrainians cling to the bridgehead near Davydov Brod, that can indicate their intent to try for the third time.
Russian intelligence uncovered the plan of Ukrainian spec op on Zaporozhye nuclear plant to capture it shortly before the IAEA mission would arrive. Some 300 elite Ukrainian elite special forces operatives lured into a trap and destroyed.
Apart from creating tensions between Ukraine and its western allies, this failure also is likely to exacerbate strife within the Ukrainian leadership. There are reports that the Ukrainian military leader, General Zaluzhny, was at odds with President Zelensky over the timing and scale of Ukraine’s “offensive”. This is not only a loss of face for Zelensky, it is likely a loss of support from key members of the Ukrainian government.
“The best defense is a good offense, as military strategists have argued for centuries. And if Ukraine’s drive toward the coast succeeds, it will restore the country’s economic viability by relieving pressure on its port city of Odessa. Moreover, it could threaten Russia’s occupation of Crimea by cutting into the land bridge that connects to the Russian-controlled Donbas region in the east.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense reveals a unique assessment from the Russian point of view. The Ukrainian military were not “saboteurs.” Rather, Ukraine wanted to remove Zaporozhye nuclear power plant from Russian occupation and control. Which as we can observe now, would have provided safety & power for Ukraine and Europe.