We disagree. Palin would have won head-to-head. Palin easily beat Begich twice with Republican voters. Again Polls do not decide elections. Most Polls are push polls to influence voting. Palin would have easily won.
Every example you give had no Establishment (RINO) support, in fact they actively worked against them.
It’s hard to claim that a poll was a “push poll” when it nailed the final result almost perfectly.
When we get the cast vote data that shows how the Palin votes would have been allocated, I’ll be sure to show you how that matches up as well.