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Will Ukraine risk a major counteroffensive?
Hotair ^ | 08/26/2022 | John Sexton

Posted on 08/26/2022 8:03:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Yesterday, Allahpundit wrote about the Russian effort to feed more troops into the stalled war on Ukraine. Russia’s inability to advance creates a possible opening for a Ukrainian counterattack. And we’ve seen some signs that Ukraine has been taking the initiative with attacks on supply lines and ammunition depots in Crimea and elsewhere. Just today there is another story that Ukraine struck a Russian base and killed 200 paratroopers:

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck enemy fortifications in occupied Kadiivka, killing about 200 Russian paratroopers,” he wrote on Twitter.

Haidai noted that the occupiers had been based in a hotel in Kadiivka since 2014. The Russians claim that on Aug. 26, the Ukrainian armed forces fired 10 HIMARS missiles at the city.

This is not the first effective attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kadiivka. On July 15 and 18, Ukrainian defenders hit ammunition depots in the city, and on July 24, they hit the occupiers’ barracks.

Ukraine is once again crediting local “partisans,” local fighters using guerilla tactics and feeding information the Ukrainian military from within Russian controlled areas. But these strikes, as successful as they’ve been, don’t constitute a full counteroffensive designed to push Russia out of seized territory.

Putin’s focus on finding more troops probably suggests that he’s not going to launch any major offensives anytime soon. He’s waiting for reinforcements and is prepared to have this drag on for another year if necessary. The Russian war machine isn’t very good but by firing artillery endlessly from afar he can eventually wear down resistance. He’s probably also hoping the west will be too busy this winter with its own problem (some of which he helped create) and will grow tired of the hassle and expense of supporting Ukraine.

That leaves Ukraine in the position of deciding whether a full counteroffensive in the near term is worth the risk.

The timing for any such attack has emerged as a pivotal decision for Ukraine’s government. Both sides are preparing for a protracted war, but Ukraine has greater incentive to try to avoid it with potentially risky maneuvers as early as this fall — before the rainy season turns the countryside into impassable bogs, or energy shortages and soaring costs undermine European support.

“An offensive is risky,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., assessing Ukraine’s options.

“If it fails, the outcome could affect external support,’’ he said. “On the other hand, Kyiv likely sees this as a window of opportunity, beyond which lies the uncertainty of a protracted war against a Russian army that has had time to entrench.”

Failure is always bad but there’s at least as big a risk from not trying and having people lose hope or patience.

“The very difficult state of our economy, the constant risks of air and missile attacks and the general fatigue of the population from the difficulties of war will work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister, wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He said the military should be prepared to advance, rather than defend.

“It makes no sense to drag out the war for years and compete to see who will run out of resources first,” he wrote.

And of course, there’s also the potential upside of a counterattack. A win, even a modest one, makes the situation much more difficult for Putin. Putin is popular when he looks strong. Looking weak will take some of the nationalist wind out of his sails.

The US recently committed $3 billion in aid to Ukraine. An aide to President Zelensky said that would allow them to pursue a counteroffensive.

“This means that we’ll be in a position now to effectively counterattack, to launch a counteroffensive,” Podolyak said, referring to the influx of assistance. “And we can defeat the enemy with the new equipment and with the new numerical value that is attached to our capacity and our capabilities.”

They’re clearly thinking about it. We’ll have to wait and see just how ambitions they are.



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: bidenbandwagonbois; bloggers; counteroffensive; globalistwarpimps; heilazov; narrativewars; penispianistbuttbois; penispianisttrolls; pianistpuffers; putinsbuttboys; roguenone; russia; russianaggression; thenarrativewar; therealwar; thisisntstarwars; ukrainazis4biden; ukraine; ukraineuberalles; ukrainiacs; warpimpsonfr; zottherussiantrolls; zzelenskyybuttbois; zzelenskyytrolls
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To: SeekAndFind

Not a question of risk, the hohos simply lack the wherewithal for it and are not capable of it.


21 posted on 08/26/2022 10:57:49 PM PDT by ganeemead (There is no definition of patriotism that includes stooging or siding with Nazis against Christians.)
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To: Paul R.

“THAT is the sort of level of weaponry Ukraine needs, and across the board.”

Thank you, you are EXACTLY CORRECT! Unfortunately, our Pentagon now is in charge of foreign policy.


22 posted on 08/26/2022 10:58:36 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com (Pray for God's intervention to stop Putin's invasion)
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To: Renfrew

Yeah, as always, Russians/Russia can’t do sh*t. US superior. Got it.

Here is the facts:

*The West/US/EU/UK/NATO is economically losing the war against Russia.
*Ukraine is militarily losing the war against Russia.
*And a debacle of epic portions for the West/US/EU/UK/NATO is steadily mounting over this war in Ukraine.


23 posted on 08/26/2022 11:19:37 PM PDT by cranked
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To: Renfrew
What they don't tell you.

I heard this reported last weekend from Alex Mercurius's reports on the war. Supposedly a couple of hundred Troops onboard. Missile attack. Video's started showing up yesterday.

.

Before:

After:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/ASg4QhHoOwch/

24 posted on 08/26/2022 11:20:24 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

I feel the puny anger of the FR neoconned bots washing over me like another zElenskyy anecdote about his favorite piano...


25 posted on 08/26/2022 11:22:23 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Karl Spooner

That’s not going to buff out...


26 posted on 08/26/2022 11:23:40 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Karl Spooner

That’s not going to buff out...


27 posted on 08/26/2022 11:23:42 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: kiryandil
I get the feeling Russian jets can take out trains fairly easy too. Here is little Highway Patrol work. They fly when they want and where they want. What we never see anymore is Ukraine jets.

.


28 posted on 08/26/2022 11:51:24 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: Renfrew

Russian air flies about 300-400 sorties per day.

Regarding the 40 year old planes, how old are USAF aircraft on average?
Regarding lack of protection from the “mediocre” Ukrainian SAMs, are they “mediocre” compared to what? BUK and S300 are more resultative systems than any of those Western makers can offer.

Ukrainian air force is not flying because it was wiped out. They lost hundreds of plane without scoring a single AA kill .


29 posted on 08/27/2022 12:33:53 AM PDT by NorseViking
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To: NorseViking

These Soros bots are seriously insane

They believe any lies support their narrative


30 posted on 08/27/2022 12:46:01 AM PDT by wardaddy (Lawyers guns and money……I lived it…. Now I'm old…. I have wonderful children)
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To: wardaddy

They do and they are vocal about it. As do the members of the Biden Brigade.


31 posted on 08/27/2022 12:55:25 AM PDT by sport
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To: SeekAndFind

Interesting but only time will tell who was correct.


32 posted on 08/27/2022 1:21:17 AM PDT by MadMax, the Grinning Reaper (Figures )
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To: Renfrew

I think the difference is that the Russians still have a significant fixed and rotary wing strike force. They’re not flying as much right now because of the anti-air, but also because the war is static. If the Ukrainians were to begin marshaling men & supplies for an offensive that would be different — that would be presenting targets worth the risk.


33 posted on 08/27/2022 2:49:02 AM PDT by Tallguy
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To: Renfrew

The Russians have run out of bombs and missiles too, and most of their planes are grounded because of lack of maintenance and parts.


34 posted on 08/27/2022 3:35:21 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: SeekAndFind

The UA High Command would never order such a thing they are too inept to do much but collect their salaries and do PR events.

Further, the UA itself cannot do offensives which are difficult - if the could go in the offensive they would have long ago.


35 posted on 08/27/2022 3:53:18 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Paul R.

Ukraine is a sponge militarily totally dependent of the West. Their military leadership is no better than their government - both imagining they are a little Soviet Union.

The Western weapons they have are being wasted by taking out things that 1) the weapons are not designed to do (bridges); 2) command posts which are easily replaced; 3) ammo dumps which also are easily replaced 4) all of the above make pretty PR pictures and allow the UA High Command to pin on another medal.

They continue to ignore Russian LR 152mm guns with crews that cannot be replaced. They continue to be lackadaisical about counter-battery fire, if they do it at all. So the High Command unwilling to do what it takes, their troops die.


36 posted on 08/27/2022 4:06:56 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Tallguy

That’s a good point. One reason the war is static is that each side has defensible lines.

The Ukrainian SAMs that are keeping the Russian planes on the ground are embedded in forest and urban areas. They become much more vulnerable if they have to support and advance through the open fields in the south.


37 posted on 08/27/2022 5:20:51 AM PDT by Renfrew
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To: cranked

Soon, Brave Ukraine will have the USA/UK Airforce to give them the air! The No Fly Zone will be imposed by NATO! Then The Million Man Trained Ukraine Army will Crush Putin’s Army and send them packing. It will be over soon. Besides, with hand held rockets, who needs an air force? See how good it has helped Russia? No, the stingers have rendered planes as useless as Tanks or Cruisers at sea. It will be over by Christmas. Ukraine will be in Moscow by then feasting in Putin’s Kremlin! helping to establish a new Russia, a democratic progressive Russia, like Ukraine!


38 posted on 08/27/2022 5:59:53 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

War is already over for Ukraine.
Economy collapsing.
Hardly any tanks, artillery, planes, helicopters, ammunition, manpower left given internal leaked Ukrainian reports putting casualties at 190K+.
Winter is coming and Ukraine’s EU supporters are out of equipment to send, money to send, and about to economically implode themselves on top of their self-inflicted energy crisis.

US, as with NATO, has simply relegated Ukraine to the curb and is has made Ukraine, at the cost of their peoples lives being thrown away, a proxy war between NATO and Russia, for which the Russian are winning and will ultimately bring them all to not only Tribunals but to an unconditional surrender of Ukraine. Bet.


39 posted on 08/27/2022 6:11:10 AM PDT by cranked
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To: SeekAndFind

train vid is good. Why does Zelenski almost always only lie?


40 posted on 08/27/2022 9:18:21 AM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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