Then why hasn't Russia won?
Russia is winning. Ukraine is the size of Texas, and Russia is four times more populous than Ukraine. Both nations began the war with almost peer quality assets and capabilities in ground, air defense and combat aviation. But this is an artillery war -- where Russia's overwhelming volume of artillery firepower over time is demolishing and demoralizing its weaker opponent. The longer this goes on, the worse for Ukraine.
Since 2014 we helped Ukraine design and construct a sophisticated defense-in-depth system along its Donbas front, with multiple lines of interlocking hard points and trench lines covered by supporting indirect fires. And we thought the Russians would be stupid enough to rush headlong into those defenses. But we were wrong. The Russians have been patient, using their overwhelming artillery fire to destroy each line and its supporting artillery before advancing with armor and infantry to clear and occupy new ground. It has been brutal and methodical. Time is on Russia's side.
The war in Ukraine is a shocking wake up call for Western politicians and military planners. We Americans haven't fought a near-peer opponent since Korea, and since Vietnam we've taken for granted that we will always enjoy total air superiority and unimpeded logistics with endless streams of food, fuel, high-tech weapons and ammunition. But this is a heavyweight fight where nobody wears sandals and both punch back with similar weapons. And here's the shocker: Ukraine alone has expended (or lost) more artillery ammunition in less than 6 months of combat than America and the entire West are capable of manufacturing in a year. "Industrial war" has returned with a vengeance -- after we spent the last four decades outsourcing our manufacturing base overseas.
The United States and its NATO subsidiary picked this fight, and now we are witnessing the systematic destruction of our most powerful client state, our best weaponry, and the economies of Western Europe. We sowed the wind...