It’s based on experience and what we know about the GOPe.
Their plan is to lose the midterms, blame it on Trump, and get their person nominated for 2024. They can’t afford to have a victory that Trump gets credit for. So you can already see how they are sabotaging it, but really not even trying. There is no message, no motivation, other than from the Trump side, but that alone may not be enough.
You do realize if Trump tells people not to show up in 2024 their chosen candidate has literally no chance of even carrying the likes of Indiana