“Yes any “surprise” attack will have a high probability of sucess. But you only get one of those.”
It won’t be a surprise. All the missile warning satellites (something I started my career doing) will pick up any launch. The thing is, you cannot stop it. Even our SM6 missiles cannot stop a maneuverable warhead.
I guess we should just preemptively scuttle our fleet, close Annapolis Military Academy and save the money. Should I learn Mandarin or Cantonese. Which do you recommend?