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To: Mount Athos
The rouble is soaring and Putin is stronger than ever - our sanctions have backfired

The headline is effectively truthful, it is slightly more accurate to say that the Rouble has stabilized at a better value than before Sanctions were imposed.

Much of the article it's self is a list of the negative consequences to the US and the West of the Sanctions and the inconvenience to Russia in creating work-arounds.

The West has shot it's self in both feet.

23 posted on 07/30/2022 5:59:24 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Celebrate Decivilization)
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To: Navy Patriot

“ it is slightly more accurate to say that the Rouble has stabilized at a better value than before”

Now that it is no longer a freely traded currency, it can enjoy strong and stable official exchange rates where the Government dictates - like the North Korean Won, and Cuban Peso. It is a Potemkin village.

Putin did that! He is a master strategist!

Automobile production in Russia has declined only about 97% this year (literally). Other categories of manufacturing are averaging a better than 50% decline. Aeroflot flights down 70%. Advertising and tourism were hit worse. Shopping malls in Russia are like ghost towns. Bankruptcies and unemployment are rising. Prices are up, and talent and investment is fleeing. The Government’s budget deficit is growing rapidly, and it has defaulted on bonds for the first time since 1917.

The real economy is tanking.

The ruble money supply has already expanded over 50% since the February invasion, dwarfing the American or European printing sprees during COVID.

The wheels are going to keep coming off in a thousand different ways, but a hard crash is coming when oil and gas revenues crash (likely sometime this Winter). Spot prices for gas will probably skyrocket for a while in Europe, but Russia won’t be getting those sales, only a portion of their former contracts. Volumes continue declining, and secondary sanctions/price caps on other customers (India and China) are on the way for oil December 5th) as soon as Europe cuts off its imports of Russian tanker loads. Prosecutors are expected to start making their cases in the first of the War crimes trials at The Hague toward the end of the year, reinforcing Russia/Putin’s pariah status.

It is going to be a once in a lifetime hard landing.

Putin did that!


40 posted on 07/30/2022 10:01:50 AM PDT by BeauBo
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