Do you bet on everything you make a prediction on? Need help with a gambling problem?
Nope. I just bet on sure things. I’m confident that this won’t pass the Senate.
1. The Senate recesses on August 5th. It won’t be back into session until after Labor Day, at which point campaign season will be in full swing.
2. The filibuster is there, and isn’t going anywhere.
3. It would take 60 votes to pass, and there aren’t anywhere near enough.
A lot of people on FR love making predictions of doom without any solid data to back up their predictions, but they don’t want to be held to account when their predictions don’t come to pass.
It is a strange form of copium in and of itself, the idea being make a prediction as dire as possible, so that you can feel good about it not happening.
That’s precisely what you are doing, and you know it, because you don’t believe your own 50/50 prediction.
We can test it, because I am offering you an open bet on the matter. Let’s name the stakes.