“Our inability to properly model cloud formation and precipitation.”
The magnetic field of the sun controls the amount of cosmic rays reaching the Earth. Many scientists believe cosmic rays are part of cloud formation. When the sun is strong its magnetic field deflects more cosmic rays away. Weak sun, less heat, weak field, more rays, more clouds, even less heat. Strong sun, more heat, strong field, less rays, less clouds, even more heat.
The resulting water vapor cycles you mentioned are the only damper to the above.
If you have ever seen a “cosmic ray detector” at a jr. high science fair, this makes a lot of sense.
The Earth’s magnetic field protects us from the sun’s solar winds. I don’t know much about it BUT, it is common knowledge that the N pole is way out of place and moving in one direction.
The environment that allows us to live here is not a delicate balance. It is a remarkable combination of forces we cannot control. There are many environmental things we can screw up. I don’t think altering the climate is one of them.
A lot of people don’t realize we are currently in an Ice Age - the Quaternary. A geologic age characterized by CYCLIC continental glaciations (That is ‘Ice Ages’! Also there have been many many ‘Ice Ages’!). The last glaciation ended roughly 15k to 20k years ago. (Depends on where you want to put your finger and start counting!) What we’ve had since the is a warm lull with ups and downs like the warming trend that help create the ancient Middle Eastern civilization, the cold period that contributed to their collapse, the Greco-Roman Warming period, cooling period of the Dark Ages, the Middle Age Warming period, etc. Man has no role in this, it’s the sun, earth’s dynamic geology, orbital & planetary dynamics, the increase and decrease of the earth’s magnetic field and even cosmic rays. It’s foolish to think we do! If the cold cycle comes back in a big way (At some point it will!) we will just have to adapt.