I don’t agree. China could take Taiwan using missiles and air-to-ground attacks to take out air defenses, then send in plane- and ship-fulls of soldiers. It would probably be bloody but not on the level you say. Moreover, China has vastly more resources, including manpower, than Taiwan. Take a look at globalfirepower.com and use the compare functions. Its not even a close match
China would win both fast and big. Taiwan’s only hope is US intervention, or nukes. Were I Taiwan’s government, I would be furiously working on developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent, and nuclear missile carrying submarines for delivery. China’s “ego” may still drive them to attack Taiwan even in the face of nuclear weapons if the weapons are landbound. China may think of infiltrating Taiwan so that they can take out land based missile silos, but nuclear missile subs would be vastly more difficult to stop.
China is not only looking at this as a restoration of their geography, but as a way to take the chip foundries that supply most of the rest of the world. By taking these, they can cripple the entire world for years since production would need to be built and ramped up elsewhere. This is not a 1-2 year sort of project. Chip foundries are hugely expensive and time consuming to create. My guess is that China is waiting for all their stratagems to be in place before they make this move, but once they are are, they intend to rule the world.
Can you point me to a reliable source that supports that scenario.
Taiwan is an island fortress that has been preparing for this for 70 years. The Straits aren’t like crossing a river; it is many miles of open ocean.
I’ve read a lot of stuff about this. No one from a professional or even high level amateur source has suggested that China has the tools to accomplish an invasion—let alone occupation of the island.
And none of this occurs in a vacuum. The US, Korea, and Japan all have valid national interests on Taiwan.
I would be sincerely interested in reading something along those lines.