Posted on 07/27/2022 10:25:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Famed statistician Nate Silver (Five Thirty Eight) predicts Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election, in a forecast that estimates her to have a 79 percent chance of taking the White House—dwarfing Donald Trump’s predicted 20 percent chance of a win in November.
https://www.newsweek.com/nate-sliver-hillary-clinton-win-presidential-election-476029
1) It is a strange fact but the GOP senate polling in the past few cycles has ALWAYS under polled Republicans. Always. The GOP always outperforms polls.
2) I do think Walker is weaker than he should be but Kemp is POLLING 3-5 POINTS UP . . . and every single pollster, including Baris, missed Kemp badly in the primaries. (I think this is because they all forgot how he was a champion of the anti-lockdowns early and businesses never forgot that). So . . .
If Kemp outperforms, say, by another 3-5 points, there is no way Walker runs 10 points behind him. There just won’t be that much ballot splitting. In other words, strange as it sounds, if Walker gets in and we get the Senate it may be largely because of the hated Kemp.
GA is going blue. There’s no way Kemp is going be elected. The cheating will guarantee Abrams the tank will win.
Yes, Kemp is popular and Walker’s only chance is to ride Kemp’s coattails.
Democrats voted for Obama twice and then Biden at some point logic will tell them how to stop the pain.
Then again some bought an Edsel every year it was produced.
I expect them to gain seats, since the crime from last time hasn’t been fixed.
It does look like the segment of women who thought Trump's tweets were nasty also place "a woman's right to choose" (local Dem ads every half hour on TV here in MI) above the right of a preborn baby to live. Sad. No FReeper women agree but there are so many others it's depressing.
Demographics analysts still contend the Trump loss was due to the young male vote deserting him and not the women at all. Note: For decades now the top bloc in polls in favor of full abortion rights were young males. Not even young women.
There it is.
Trump threw his support around a couple of lemons in GA and PA. Debt it if you want but that’s a fact.
Baris says he thinks it’s pretty close now.
Baris doubted that Kemp would hit 50% in the primary.
Kemp got 74%.
Worth noting that EVERY. SINGLE. POLLSTER. underestimated Kemp in the primary. Why?
None of them, as Baris admitted, took into account that he was the very first lockdown governor to lift the lockdown (Noem never had SD in lockdown, but no one noticed).
This was a massive factor for small business support for Kemp, and since no one thought the lockdowns were any big deal, they never polled for that impact.
Because of Stacy Abrams' Fraud Machine.... and the side effects of that compromised system.
Yes, it makes little sense that Abrams' machine would push Kemp (and Raffenburger) over the top, until you consider that Raffenburger especially, but Kemp also, are in on compromised election procedure.
Kemp pointedly shut down any efforts to make GA elections more secure. I still vote here, I have to to feel good about myself, but I am under no illusion that there are legit elections in GA any more.
Further: It's my personal belief that Kemp and Abrams made a deal. Kemp: "Stacy, you stop bitching that I stole the governors race from you in 2018, and you can have it in 2022." Abrams: "It's a deal!"
No. It’s all about the lockdowns. No pollster factored that in.
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