Posted on 07/27/2022 10:25:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Meh, I don’t believe it. And yes, I remember that the GOP left Senate seats on the table even in the magical wave year of 2010, nominating Christine O’Donnell instead of Mike Castle in Delaware and sending Sharron Angle into battle against Harry Reid in Nevada.
Catherine Cortez Masto isn’t Harry Reid, though. At a moment when inflation is the highest it’s been in 40 years, Biden’s approval rating is well below 40 percent, and Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, I’m supposed to believe she’s going to overcome all of that and hold onto her Senate seat? She’s polling at 44 percent!
Yet she’s slightly favored over Adam Laxalt in two respected Senate forecasts out today, a key reason why each is forecasting that Dems will hold the Senate. Decision Desk HQ has them as a nearly 57 percent favorite to retain a majority:
That’s … a lot of movement towards Democrats over the past month, a timeframe that coincides almost perfectly with Roe being overturned. DDHQ sees Cortez Masto winning in Nevada, Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly holding their seats in Georgia and Arizona, respectively, and John Fetterman dispatching Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site makes Herschel Walker a very slight favorite over Warnock but gives Dems a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate notwithstanding that result. They too like Cortez Masto, Kelly, and Fetterman to win. And they’ve also seen movement towards Democrats lately.
In some ways more interesting is the "Classic" version of our model, which doesn't use expert ratings like the default version ("Deluxe") does. That's shown pretty linear improvement for Democrats.
https://t.co/ImBoBkGHdD pic.twitter.com/BhfBRiKliY— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 27, 2022
What gives? It’s not just the Dobbs ruling, Silver notes, as Dems’ chances began ticking up even before the decision was handed down on June 24. His reasons: “Gas prices are down. Trump is back in the news because of the Jan. 6 hearings and for other reasons. COVID deaths remain toward the lower end since the pandemic began. Wacky GOP candidates are winning primaries.” Of those four, the first is probably the most important. Gas prices have dropped more than 50 cents on average in the past month, a metric of improvement that practically every voter is made aware of daily.
But GOP wackiness shouldn’t be underestimated. Herschel Walker, possibly the greatest athletic hero in the history of Georgia, is running five points behind Brian Kemp:
NEW AJC poll in GEORGIA:
Kemp 48
Abrams 43Warnock 46
Walker 43https://t.co/Tf8UBB0FGs— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) July 27, 2022
A figure as beloved as Walker should be a heavy favorite in a year when his party is expecting major gains nationally in the House, but he has a problem. He’s “glaringly unfit” for office, in the words of John McWhorter, who finds Walker’s inability to converse insightfully on policy issues so distressing that he views his nomination as a sort of tokenism by Republican voters. “It’s hard to imagine Republicans backing a white candidate so profoundly and shamelessly unsuited for the role. It presents a double standard that manifests as a brutal lack of respect for all voters, Black voters in particular,” he wrote a few weeks ago.
Warnock’s campaign keeps pressing Walker for a series of debates, believing that an extended Q&A in front of Georgia’s voters will bring the public around to McWhorter’s view of the Republican’s fitness. Walker is game — sort of…
Herschel Walker is asked why he hasn’t agreed to debate Sen Warnock: “First of all, Sen Warnock has nothing else to talk about .. I’ve told him many times, I’m ready to debate him anytime, any day, I just want to make it for the fans, not about a political party or some media.” pic.twitter.com/2on6kQ4NWf
— Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) July 27, 2022
…but Republicans in the Senate are less enthused:
As Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) sees it, Democrats are pushing for the former NFL star to debate their incumbent in Georgia’s hotly contested Senate race because “they feel like that’s an advantage for their side. And I don’t think Herschel Walker should do anything that gives his opponent an advantage.”…
“We’ve got some strong candidates. Some that, I think, are less strong,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). “Let’s just say Herschel Walker, I think, is having a hard time getting his running legs back.”…
[O]ne Republican operative involved in Senate races said behind the scenes that, earlier this summer, “there was almost existential concern” about the Walker campaign. This Republican, who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity, said there’s still time for a course correction but that “if the election were today, he would not win.”
The fact that he’s trailing Warnock despite having high name recognition is evidence that some Georgia swing voters are, at a minimum, reserving judgment and yet to be convinced that he’ll contribute meaningfully if they send him to the Senate.
Walker is just one candidate, though. If the GOP fails to gain a Senate majority in November, nominating figures like Mehmet Oz and Blake Masters will also have contributed to the failure. Oz is a man without a natural constituency, too squishy for MAGA and too kooky for establishmentarians, and someone whom Team Fetterman continues to treat as an object of ridicule:
NJ's own @StevieVanZandt 🎸 has a VERY special message for Dr. Oz!!
So Dr. Oz just fuhgeddaboudit! pic.twitter.com/awlAeVcUeg
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) July 27, 2022
Oz isn’t a political radical or incapable of discussing the issues, he just doesn’t excite his base the way Fetterman does his own. As for Masters, if this is the sort of ad his Republican primary opponents are running against him, I can’t imagine what Dems will do if he wins the primary:
Devastating new campaign ad against Trump-endorsed AZ Senate candidate Blake Masters by his primary opponent that has Junior furious this morning. pic.twitter.com/24fuZIHJSV
— Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) June 6, 2022
What do Walker, Oz, and Masters have in common? They’ve all been endorsed by Trump. If any or all of them end up losing this fall and Democrats keep control of the Senate as a result, that’ll make two cycles in a row in which Trump helped ensure that Biden’s party controls the upper chamber. You might hear about that from Ron DeSantis on the primary campaign trail in 2024.
Related exit question: Why are small-dollar donations to Republicans dropping off lately, at a moment in the campaign when we would expect them to be ramping up? If the answer is “inflation,” why have Democrats’ small donors kept up the pace? Is Trump hoovering up all of the available small money via his Super PAC, leaving GOP candidates downballot to fend for themselves?
The fix is in, the rats are gonna steal the Senate
If it’a wave we pick up 4 seats. Then there’s Col. + Washington. Pie in the sky. This writer is engaged in wishful thinking. It’s a shame if we pick up only one or 2. Too many Jim Jeffords amongst us. GOP ones would be more conservative but it only takes one or 2 to act like a Murkowski.
The 4 seats are Az.,NH. NV, Ga.
Keep Wi., Pen, & Ohio.
There’s as many as 8 doable in ‘2. It would be a long, slow death for the rats.
In any polls or surveys, always look to see the percentage surveyed that are Dems.
I agree....if its rigged. If its free/fair both house and senate will be red.
This is a Trump trashing article based on what I read.
Skewed polls based on more Dems polled....
Good point.
We can’t let the evil Dems take the Senate. Despite how ignorant and brainwashed the voters are they have to understand the loss of our nation is at stake.
Being a lowly peasant subject of the Commies is not a good idea. Not at all.
GA and PA are lost due to lousy candidates. Just no way on those.
And the libs are running stellar candidates with Warnock and Fetterman? Libs get out the vote and they vote for their crappy candidates while Republicans sit home and pout because their candidate has flaws.
When you run a CTE disabled person and an islamic, I’m not sure what else you can expect.
Fetterman seems like an uber-PA type. Rough, obnoxious, leftwing, and a pothead.
I just hope abrams loses in GA, talk about a real nightmare potential there.
Not really. We are nominating crappy candidates. One reason we didn't do well in 2008 and 2012 because both McCain and Romney were designated losers.
With the Senate, we can't afford to nominate a turd and expect to win. PA and GA are gone. In PA, a Turk has no business in winning the nomination. Herschel Walker is a decent guy but it's a cutthroat race in GA and the media is not going to do him any favors.
haha, dimocrats wishing and hoping without a chance.
Regarding Herschel Walker, you're right. But he was a jock his whole life. So it's unlikely he was using his brain in the first place. He should run as a Democract though. The media would let him off the hook. I'll have to respect him even though he'll probably lose the race for us. Lousy (R) candidates lately. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. Now Herschel Walker. And let's not even talk about Governor Brian Kemp.
The ONLY way for that to happen is by CHEATING
FACT!!!
Well, sadly Catherine Cortez Masto may win Nevada as Never Trumper Laxalt is a lazy campaigner and deep down just remember he was a Jeb! supporter. He is not conservative and can’t be trusted.
Models and simulations, all of which have a human setting up their algorithms, inputting data, etc. Therefore, such can be outright manipulated purposely or subconsciously. In other words, garbage in, garbage out.
So, if I read this right, women killing their own babies is more important than restoring and protecting the country, according to 538.
If this is actually true, than the country is well and truly lost.
That’s what I read, too
Glad somebody else noticed it
Take note of how FAST Democrats ACT on things!!
GET OFF YOUR ASSES!!
Fix is in
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