The war will be over soon—or at least in this phase. In six month we will be buying Russian oil.
“The war will be over soon—or at least in this phase. In six month we will be buying Russian oil.”
I think it very likely that we will be in a new phase at year’s end, but I don’t see how the war will end in the next few months. Neither side has the power to force it, neither seems likely to surrender.
By the end of the year however, both the Ukrainian and Russian economies should be in dire straits. The Ukrainians have the EU and Americans to float their smaller boat. Nobody is likely to be sending huge bailout checks to Russia. Some predatory lending from China (designed to take control of natural resource deposits at pennies on the dollar) is the best they can expect, in foreign aid.
If there is a recession (as seems likely) Russia will remain poised to absorb the bulk of the Global losses in oil and gas sales.
After the war/after the recession, other suppliers (almost all of whom have inherently lower cost to produce) will naturally want to keep the new market share that they gained at Russia’s expense. What customer is going to want the risk of going through this again, with Russia as a supplier?
The longer this goes on, the deeper the hole the Russians will be in. It is already very, very deep.