1) There cannot be a peace agreement. Neither side would believe the other. Ukraine would begin shelling across whatever line is agreed to within a week of signing — that being how long it would be to get artillery and ammo in position from the West.
2) No one knows how many casualties have been suffered by either side. So just stop presuming there is a numerical advantage in that regard for either side.
3) You can ignore money, too. The Russian Central Bank can print up all the rubles it needs, just as the Fed and ECB have done. Nobody is going to suffer any money stress from the war. Money is pieces of paper with ink on them, the value of which is decided inside the imagination of counterparties. Though Russia’s value is decided by the joules in a barrel of oil, which is not affected by imagination. In contrast to the US and its 137% debt/GDP ratio.
4) Militaries are insular. All over the world. In the US, a military base has a commissary, theater, hospital, housing, mess halls, softball fields. The people of that base do not have to socialize with the surrounding populace. Their friends tend to be military and they will know them all their lives.
5) Ukraine’s generals, trained at the same military schools at Russian universities as the Russian generals (30 yrs ago), know personally the guys they send into battle to die. The political leadership cannot allow much retreating because they understand the optics and how retreats might slow influx of weapons — as well as might decide where lines are drawn during negotiations.
And so they can’t retreat. Generals might want them to retreat, but the politics say no. A time will come when Generals can’t bear to order their personal friends to their deaths. This has the makings of military coup written all over it.
A military replacement government in Ukraine would negotiate with the Russians, essentially a surrender, and lead the government for a decade or two — always promising elections someday. The EU easy visas will drain the country of everyone who can’t bear living under the Russians, and the military govt will be glad to see them go.
That is the most credible outcome.
The war will not be going for much longer—My bet two months. Russians will now move on Odessa and if they take it Ukraine is done. Look to see the world’s eyes (and Money) refocused on new wars, new shiny things to fill the news. (War on Taiwan? Iran? War in South America? etc....
“And so they can’t retreat. Generals might want them to retreat, but the politics say no. A time will come when Generals can’t bear to order their personal friends to their deaths. This has the makings of military coup written all over it.”
And I suspect this would be even more true of the military/political situation on Russia, especially since Putin seems to be on the way out. Lot of lost Russian generals.