Posted on 07/01/2022 3:58:38 AM PDT by FarCenter
Summary/overview
Since June 26, the noise from the Bavarian Alps (G7) and Madrid (NATO), mainly from the mouths of the same principal actors, has drowned out (as, one suspects, it was designed to do) much of reality, whether on the ground in Ukraine or, more importantly, in the global economy. I address some of those issues in the assessment below.
In the Donbas, as is evident from the map, Russian troops are now in control of all territory east of the Donets River and the fighting for Lysychansk appears to be evolving faster than the capture of Severodonetsk. The main road from the west into (or out of) Lysychansk is closed and the escape hatch for Ukrainian forces by small roads has narrowed to less then 10km.
South of the transport hub of Bakhmut, Russian forces have gained ground and have established at least some control over the main north-south road in the area, sufficient to deny the road to Ukrainian usage.
Russian forces north and northeast of Kharkiv continue to improve their positions and are continually shelling Kharkiv and its suburbs.
In the south (Kherson area), position skirmishes continue with no significant gains or losses by either side. It’s the typical scout activity one would expect, as the main theatre of war will shift south after the Donbas campaign is finished.
(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...
Reality will set in when NATO starts staring into the eyes of old man winter and realize they will freeze their behinds off this winter. Actually, it is likely already too late to resolve this mess before winter.
Biden advisor “says the quiet part out loud” on CNN. Never thought I would see them openly admit this on CNN, no less...:-) Watch the video.
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1542684948519419908
Breaking911
@Breaking911
CNN: “What do you say to those families that say, ‘listen, we can’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years?’”
BIDEN ADVISOR BRIAN DEESE: “This is about the future of the Liberal World Order and we have to stand firm.”
I was surprised at how quickly the Russians took the oil refinery, since that seems to reduce significantly the routes for withdrawal.
Armchair Warlord Retweeted
Kenneth A. Grimm “K. A. G. Sundaram”
@kagsundaram
The Lysychans’k - Sivers’k highway is now cut.
Orderly evacuation of trapped Ukrainian troops will now be exceedingly difficult.
Reinforcement and/or resupply of those troops is now effectively impossible.
https://twitter.com/kagsundaram/status/1542746126885048321
Russia Ministry of Defense:
“The failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield provoke an increase in the number of deserters and those who evade participation in hostilities. There is an unorganized withdrawal of individual units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Lisichansk. The command in every possible way hides the facts of understaffing of units. So, in one of the battalions of the 17th tank brigade, operating in the area of \u200b\u200bthe settlement of Novaya Poltavka of the Donetsk People’s Republic, no more than 20% of the personnel of the regular strength remained in service.”
Recent conscripts with a few weeks training are not eager to duplicate the ordeal of the trapped Azovites in the Mariupol steel factories.
They are ditching their uniforms and trying to escape as civilian refugees.
“With Chechen Special Forces Near Lisischansk In Newly Russian Controlled Territory”
[New war report from American Patrick Lancaster. If there were any reporters doing the same from the UAF side, I’d post them, but I don’t see any.]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8PwNQnhe-8&ab_channel=PatrickLancaster
That aligns with what I’m reading and watching.
Dr.Snekotron
@snekotron
According to the latest information compiled by DPA, the opportunity to retreat from Lisichansk is all but over at this point. Parts of the city are already encircled.
https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1542846578297344000
Rybar provides interesting insight into on the ground reality that highlights Ukraine’s penchant for corruption...:-)
Rybar
🇬🇧🇺🇦🇫🇷Arms trade on the line of contact and indirect deliveries of military equipment from Europe to Russia by Ukrainians
In the context of the news about the transfer of another six CAESAR self-propelled guns by France to Ukraine, we want to talk a little about how things are with the arms trade on the line of contact.
We already wrote that two CAESAR self-propelled guns went to the Russian side for a ridiculous 120 thousand dollars . At the same time , Ukrainian negotiators initially requested $1 million for the launcher.
How it looks technically in practice:
▪️Negotiations are underway through special forces on the possibility of acquiring one or another model of foreign equipment;
▪️since this whole thing is taking place on the line of contact, control over specific samples of military equipment received from the West is rather conditional there: the maximum that can be counted on is a relatively timid commander and rather zealous representatives of the SBU, who will not give a damn about reputational losses Ukraine in case of loss of foreign equipment;
▪️the Russian side acts as a picky buyer who does not need outdated weapons and military equipment: everything that is needed was obtained by undercover intelligence, and so on. Local Ukrainian businessmen are trying to cash in and somehow sell the RF Armed Forces what they have. As a result, the deals go through, but are guided by the Russian side, at the same time, only by the expediency of maintaining contacts with the enemy;
▪️along the line of special forces, they agree on the organization of a massive artillery raid on a certain already empty square to divert attention while the actual transfer of equipment is carried out;
▪️The Russian side has already expressed interest in acquiring HIMARS. They asked for more ammo.
To the Russian side, we repeat, such deals provide an opportunity to maintain working contacts with the Ukrainian side, which in the future will allow solving much more pressing issues. On the Ukrainian side, there is a great desire not to fight and earn money.
That’s how they get along.
#Russia #Ukraine #France @rybar
A lot happened since that article was written.
map looks a day or two old.
.
Rus crossed the river from Severo and captured the L-chansk heliport. multiple advances into the city.fighting near L-chansk center. DPA posted update around 6am.
.
[ Luhansk Front ] Russian forces captured Zolotarivka, Spirne & Pavlohrad; Pincer on the city center
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ygl8UxqbJnM
Still
Not
Our
Problem
Ukraine getting ready to surrender as soon as Biden/ G7 tell them too.
“Reality will set in when NATO starts staring into the eyes of old man winter…”
Ol’ Man Winter appears to have a deleterious effect on wars with Russia. Just ask Napoleon or the failed house painter.
I sure hope the following info post is not true; because if it is it would be in direct contradiction with what the Biden administration assured regarding limited size of range of the HIMARS they would be sending to Ukraine. If it is true, it is an escalation in the making and we could see retaliation...:-(
Jun 2, 2022 — The Himars that Washington is providing to Ukraine will have a range of about 50 miles (80km), a US official told reporters.
Ukrainian sources report that the Armed Forces of Ukraine nevertheless received missiles for the HIMARS MLRS from the United States with a range of 120-170 km. It can be ATACMS Block I, ATACMS Block IA or ATACMS Block II. It is alleged that this was done to enable the Nazis to destroy the command posts and ammunition depots of the Russian Army in the Donbass.
However, for the time being, the Banderaites are striking with American MLRS on civilian targets in Perevalsk and Rovenki.
Clearly, the time has come for symmetrical responses. For example, helping the Shiite militia in Iraq to strike at the bases, warehouses and command posts of the American occupiers. @WarDonbass
9.1Kviews
06:02
Nato simply wants to use up and wear down the Russian military before they make a direct attack on Russia because they want Putin out and their point man in so they can control the oil and other Russian resources.
I am sure you are right about their plan. But, as we have seen, they are not very realistic planners. Everything has turned out differently that they originally expected. In fact, they probably already wish they they had never started...:-)
And based on the all day (7 days a week) reading and research I have been doing of all the info from any and all sides, I would say they better rethink...:-)
Their chances of removing Putin and gaining control of Russian resources SHORT OF A NUCLEAR ATTACK are nonexistent.
Winter is Russia’s friend. When German home start to freeze all the patriotic feeling for “Brave” Ukrainians will wither. The inflation will not help. In the end it will be Ukraine’s corruption that will finish them.
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