In this reality...for a couple of weeks, the Russians were positioning for the invasion of the Ukraine. In the case of Lithuania, just a battalion or two positioning themselves would be enough to trigger what forward-deployed NATO troops are already in the NE of Poland, and in Lithuania to react. Russia won’t get a ‘pass’ to repeat the same script.
Also, on tank numbers...it’s going to be a ‘pain’ for Russia to assemble a second invasion force. Maybe some of the T-34s still remain in marginal operational condition.
For a number of reasons, I think nothing much will happen other than propaganda BS on nightly Moscow TV and pro-Putin ‘Bots’ on FreeRepublic write text excessively.
Before Ukraine, speedbump was pretty much their role. Now that Russia is not only tied up in Ukraine, but exposed and depleted militarily, The Baltics have become a LOT braver. With NATO readiness ramped up, Russia wouldn’t make it far over the border of any of the Baltic states.
Too bad so many of the former COMBLOC countries didn’t use the past 30 years of freedom from Russia to build even a minimal army and air force. The Baltics, Romania, Czechia, Slovakia, etc are pitiful. Poland, Bulgaria and Ukraine have decent armies but lack air power.