Posted on 06/21/2022 10:03:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We sold last year and the house next to it just sold for $750k.
I am now seeing price reductions on homes in the 5% range. That is significant.
New homes is a small piece of the pie and they purposefully cut the inventory chart off back to 2021 - if you look at the total inventory of homes, supply is still stupidly low. Builders will cut back on new builds - they need to anyway with labor and supply chain issues and this is a good excuse to pull back on marginal products.
You may be waiting (forever) for a lot of air to come out. Record low inventory and the best purchasing class of home buyers in the last 2.5 years (minimal foreclosures coming). I do think you may see some declines in areas with a ton of second homes but places largely primary occupied or rentals, extremely unlikely. The growth pace will slow down which is good but should continue to grow nationally.
There aren’t that many resales like that and most of the 2008 bubble was speculation. Nearly all the buyers this time are occupied and rental property (long term) investments. The quality of the buyer in 2004-2007 was not even 20% as good as the quality of the buyer this time (eg: lowest 10% credit score is 720 this time vs 580 last time - not even counting 25% are all cash this time vs almost none last time). Lastly, inventory is still near record lows and way way below normal. In 2006-2007, inventory was near normal (high) levels. In short, there isn’t going to be a repeat on housing tanking here. If anything it will continue to increase, just at a slower pace, just like in 1979-1983.
Exactly how things were in late ‘79.
Construction workers were begging for work (except the union thugs)
Down at the Union Hall, they were all paid to sit and do nothing.
Six months later, I went back to college for engineering.
Embrace the suck kiddies.
Back to the carter years and the early Regan years of trying to clear the mess out.
Can’t sell your pumped up price housing? Too bad. Bad decisions have bad consequences.
Give it a few months if you can.
I’ve got footings poured, stem wall, plumbing rough-in and compacted fill waiting on the slab for the addition. I’ve held off over a year. I got tired of the snide attitude of some trades. Screw ‘em. Summer doesn’t last forever. Winter is coming. Electrician, HVAC, painter, trim and probably plumber won’t be needed. I can do that without them. It is that cast iron bath tub my wife got that is the plumbing problem but I bet I can manage with an engine hoist. I can do the septic as well.
I’ll wait until at least Fall to frame and weather in.
Can’t understand why lumber went down and now back up a bit. Sheet goods are a price problem that does not seem to go away. I will not pay $80 a sheet for advantech that I paid $27 for just two years ago.
I thought the same.
Most bubbles don’t deflate enough. Neither will this one.
Where I live, real estate agents want you to strip your house of carpeting, old appliances, mirrors on walls, stairlifts, even rip up old tiles, then make certain repairs (outside painting, patio repair). Everything is as bare as can be so new owners can remake house like they want.
Atlanta is still a hot market. Lots of cash buyers.
maybe it’s just me, but nearly half(!) of the homes for sale in my suburban community coming on the market today were flips bought on 2020/21. What happens when the only people holding the bag are flippers and ‘investors’?
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