Within the Western governments, there are a neocon faction and a pragmatist faction, or hawks and doves. The dovish faction is represented by Henry Kissinger and some opinion writers in the legacy media that support negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The hawkish faction hopes to turn Ukraine into a second Afghan War. They believe that Putin’s Russia can collapse as Gorbachev’s USSR did under the weight of a foreign war. The provocation by Lithuania shows that the hawkish faction is in the ascendancy. As Russia appears unable to defeat the Ukrainians quickly, the hawks feel that Russia is in no position to combat NATO provocation.
They are all using unpinned hand grenades as dice in a game of chance that can result in nuclear war if 1. any player guesses wrong, or 2. if fate throws in an unseen twist.