This is ridiculous. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has greatly strengthened NATO, and recommitted the member nations resolve. In fact, it drove the Swedes and Fins into NATO arms.
It is not "me" that supports Lithuania. It is NATO's obligation, and they know if they do not vigorously respond the whole treaty dies then and there. Turkey risks being thrown out if that happens and they try to stop a response. I'd expect them to try to get the Russians to stop more than arm up against NATO. Still, the Turks are diverging from the West daily, and that would be final straw. Erdogan isn't in the catbird seat like he thinks. We could always start arming Kurds like we do Ukrainians. (and I say this tongue in cheek)
But in the end, you are right to fear the law of unintended consequences. But THAT fear was unleashed when Russia invaded. Everything else is reaction.
And you don't have to tell me about clueless/feckless Joe Biden. We both know Trump wouldn't have let it get this far.
Imagine the world with a Trump unfettered with the Russian hoax and having the ability to wheel and deal with Putin. A glorious world we'll probably never know now.
That's the Biden propaganda. Turkey and Hungary aren't going along with the sanctions. Germany and France are slow delivering weapons to Ukraine. Sweden and Finland want the US to be the guarantor of their sovereignty. Cheap insurance policy. As I mentioned, NATO is still a paper tiger for the reasons I mentioned. Let's see now long the "unity" and commitment last once the war dissipates.
Silvio Berlusconi wrote an excellent article on June 2. It was titled, "Russia has already lost to a more united and determined West. But now the free world finds itself isolated due to a lack of leaders." Among his other observations in this lengthy piece:
Our most serious mistake, however, would be to take for granted and definitive a system that is questioned in much of the world and that for example in Italy, over three thousand years of history, has existed for 75 years because only with the introduction of suffrage universal female, which took place in 1946, it was possible to speak of complete democracy.
The bitter reality of which we must take note is that the West, due to the lack of authoritative leadership in recent years and in the present but also due to lack of confidence in itself, in its own ideas, in its own system of values, has not been able to create neither a system of alliances nor an attractive political and economic proposal comparable to that advanced by China as the "silk road". On the contrary, the West has registered some disastrous setbacks, for example in Afghanistan, which have further undermined its credibility in the eyes of the ruling classes and public opinion of the entire planet.
In all of this, Europe really risks becoming Manzoni's "earthenware vase among iron vessels" in the decades to come. Our countries have neither the military strength nor the condition of geographic isolation that to some extent protect North America. One can be "economic giants and political dwarves" only as long as someone else is willing to take charge of our security and our freedom. This is the reason we are bound by an unquenchable debt of gratitude and loyalty to the United States. But the signs of an inevitable downsizing of Washington's role as guardian of collective security are increasingly evident because it is increasingly concerned by China's challenge on the Pacific.
Hence, the political and military unity of Europe, often invoked, becomes no longer just a desirable choice but an unavoidable necessity, in the face of the challenges of imperialist totalitarianisms such as that of China, and in the face of the challenges of Islamic religious fundamentalism in the face of uncontrolled migratory waves.
Unity which means first of all an authentic awareness and sharing of the values on which our social and civil model is based. Those values are in danger and no one is able to protect them alone. This is the perspective error of the so-called sovereignists. The only way to play a role in the world, but also to defend our very way of being, is to join forces, economic, political and military. We have been asking for this for many years, but so far the progress made has been only symbolic. And yet we must realize that what unites us, as Europeans, is much stronger than what divides us.
A Europe capable of a common foreign policy must have a common military instrument, I repeat once again. Common defense means economies of scale, it means avoiding duplication, in short, it means greater efficiency with the same expenditure ... It means reaching a critical mass, of men and means, that no country alone is able to field.
I see NATO becoming less relevant in the future as Europeans want a joint military that can address European problems, like the migrants surging up from Africa and the Middle East.
But in the end, you are right to fear the law of unintended consequences. But THAT fear was unleashed when Russia invaded. Everything else is reaction.
I don't trust the judgment of Biden and his foreign policy team. We are in very dangerous seas on a rudderless ship with no one at the helm. God help us.