Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 19 June 2022

Various driveby media television networks ^ | 19 June 2022 | Various Self-Serving Politicians and Big Media Screaming Faces

[kabar]

The commission stated that sanctioned goods and cargo should still be prohibited even if they travel from one part of Russia to another but through EU territory.

However you want to rationalize this, it is a provocation. The established rail corridors connecting Kaliningrad to Russia are being disrupted. The Russians can supply the territory by sea, so the only real purpose of this to poke the bear.

In a totally unrelated matter, the DC Council, with approval by Congress, changed the name in front of the Saudi Embassy to Khashoggi Way. There is no end to this stupidity. Another needless provocation.

Street outside Saudi Embassy in DC renamed Jamal Khashoggi Way

[Alas Babylon!]

However you want to rationalize this, it is a provocation.

I ain't rationalizing jack, buddy. I just posted the facts. Kindly leave my emotions out of this and I won't attack yours.

It may have been a provocation from the EU, but not Lithuania. They get EU cash, and would hate to see that slow up.

Bet you 10/1 some Brussels bureaucrat pushed this.

[kabar]

The explanation, whether it came from collective you of the EU, NATO, or Lithuania, is a transparent, needless provocation. The former Warsaw Pact and Baltic countries of the former USSR have been the most hard-line and bellicose when it comes to Ukraine. Having lived in communist Poland, I can understand their animus towards the Russians. But the danger of NATO expansion was always that the organization could be hijacked by these new members who have scores to settle. Hungary has been a notable exception.

I watched General Jack Keane being interviewed on Fox the other day. When asked about the recent visit of Macron, Scholz, and Draghi to Kyiv, Keane said the three of them could not be trusted because of their desire to negotiate with Putin about an end to the war. It is clear that the US and the UK are pushing for continuing the war while many in Europe want an end to it sooner rather than later as the domestic opposition grows fanned by increased energy and food prices along with housing the refugees.

It is probably hyperbole to show resolve to the Russians, but NATO is now opining that the war could go on for years. If that were the case, I can see NATO being a casualty of the war.

Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief

The West must prepare to continue supporting Ukraine in a war lasting for years, Nato's chief has warned.

Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the costs of war were high, but the price of letting Moscow achieve its military goals was even greater.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also warned of a longer-term conflict.

And in a stark warning, the newly appointed head of the British Army said the UK and allies needed to be capable of winning a ground war with Russia.

Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, who started the job last week, said in an internal message seen by the BBC: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine underlines our core purpose - to protect the UK and to be ready to fight and win wars on land - and reinforces the requirement to deter Russian aggression with the threat of force."

Mr Stoltenberg and Mr Johnson said sending more weapons would make a victory for Ukraine more likely.

"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.

"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."

[patriotspride]

Everything is choreographed when it comes to the movements of the President. No one gets close to him without being vetted

---

Agree, to create the impression he is out for a ride and no one knew he would be there is a joke. That said he cant even deliver on a set up.....

[Alas Babylon!]

First, I disagree that it doesn’t it matter who this ban came from, in the regards as to what some people have been suggesting, that Lithuania will be crushed by Russia because of its insolence, and my point was (and well made) that little Lithuania did not impose sanctions, nor even declare Russia goods from one part of Russia to another prohibited, but rather the EU did.

So, it IS an important distinction, in so far as how Russia reacts.

In this case it isn’t NATO, but rather the EU. Now here is another important distinction, as NATO directly involves the USA and Canada, while the EU doesn’t (and doesn’t include the United Kingdom).

Whatever happens with NATO in regard to member states hijacking it to settle scores, is very much dependent on American leadership. Under Trump, this would not be allowed/condoned, but under Biden’s weak hand is an issue of concern.

So perhaps people will understand why America needs to have a robust pro-American administration as opposed to a woke one. I doubt many will learn, but it is important I’m sure we all can agree.

Despite all of this, the Russians could end it all tomorrow by withdrawing from Ukraine. They could even withdraw but keep “peace keeping” forces in their part of the Donbas.

None of this needs to go on much longer if cooler heads prevail, but the initial invasion was wrong-headed and is rightfully condemned.

There could be a conference on Europe where some of these disputed areas are addressed. Russia should get and keep Crimea. Ukraine should get their Black Sea coast back. However, the Eastern shore of the Sea of Azov should be part of whatever rump state (that the people who live there agree to) that comes out of the Donbas.

[DanZ]

The established rail corridors connecting Kaliningrad to Russia are being disrupted.

So, the Ruskies are getting a taste of the Berlin air lift, removed some fifty/sixty years?

[rodguy911]

Yeah but you got 67 at night we don’t get in the 60’s until November.We are 93/80 til October.

[rodguy911]

We just had Fathers Day lunch at the Square Grouper in Islamorada as opposed to the one in the Lower Keys. Very good we had calimari and Conch appetizers,not bad.

[rodguy911]

At 5% its 1.5 billion in a 4 billion economy with all kinds of fixed costs,time to cut the budget and stop the ridiculous spending.

Looks for these clowns to spend the last dime before the end of the year when the good guys come back into office.

[rodguy911]

One question. I have that I don't know is did the UKraine army get years and years of military training from the EU or Nato for the past ten years?
I have one source that says they absolutely did and another that says they absolutely did not.
I don't know.

I wonder if this is it?
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3020199/dod-leaders-say-training-ukrainian-forces-is-paying-dividends/
Defense Department leaders said today that the training of Ukrainian forces by Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine has paid off as Ukrainians defend their country against Russian forces.
Ukrainian service members trained at the Yavoriv Combat Training Center in the Lviv region of western Ukraine right up until the Russian invasion in February. The most recent trainers were part of Task Force Gator, composed of the Florida Army National Guard's 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team.

A soldier aims a gun.
From the beginning of that training mission until January 2022, the 7th Army Training Command had trained a total of 23,000 Ukrainians in Yavoriv, said Army Brig. Gen. Joseph Hilbert, commander of the 7th Army Training Command.

Spotlight: NATO
In February, the U.S. European Command re positioned Task Force Gator to Grafenwoehr, Germany, where the unit continues to train Ukrainians on a variety of U.S. and NATO weaponry to enable them to defend their nation.

A map shows Ukraine and neighboring countries.
Training included antitank weapons systems, doctrine, operations and, importantly, the development of a competent noncommissioned officer corps, he said. He noted that NCOs who have been through the training can take the initiative and make tactical decisions based on their commanders’ intentions.

“The biggest mistake that the Russians made was giving us eight years to prepare for this [war],” Hopkins mentioned a Ukrainian as stating to a U.S. trainer.

Army Lt. Col. Jeremy “Todd” Hopkins, deputy commander of the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, said the goal of training is to get the Ukrainians back into the fight as quickly as possible and with the proficiency they need to operate weapons platforms that are being rushed into their hands by the U.S. and partner nations.

A soldier waves a flag.
“They're doing really well with the training that we've given them. And I'm very confident with their abilities as they go forward,” Hilbert said.

“[Ukrainian] soldiers are extremely competent and eager to learn the systems that we are providing them. … They're absolutely focused on the task at hand and getting back to Ukraine,” he said.
..........................
or this could be it as well,either way looks like Ukraine has ahad extensive help from nato since 2014:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm
5. How has NATO supported Ukraine since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014?
Since Russia's illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO has helped to reform Ukraine's armed forces and defense institutions, including with equipment and financial support. Allies have also provided training for tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops. Since 2016, NATO's support has been organized through a Comprehensive Assistance Package, which includes a wide range of capacity-building programmes and trust funds, focused on key areas like cyber defense, logistics and countering hybrid warfare. Ukrainian forces have also developed their capabilities by participating in NATO exercises and operations.

[rodguy911]

I have read that Lithuania and Poland are not considered friendlies to the ruskies and they will eat their lunch and treat them as hostiles while they are going easy on the Ukraine due to the neighborly atmosphere they have in the Donbass.Hard to know what is real.

[rodguy911]

Lots of people are asking the same questions.
Another question is are we financing the laundry for the deep state?

[rodguy911]

One source told me that if Nato and the EU went up against Russia they have much better weaponry and would win in that case.Another source told me that the Russian army is now battle tested and would be hard to beat.
I don't know where the truth lies.

[Alas Babylon!]

The US, the UK, France and Australia have been in more or less constant war since 2001.

The tactics we used to defeat Saddam Hussein’s army back in 1991 are the same we trained in the 1970s and 80s for. The Russians haven’t really changed their tactics since.

4 months of not winning against an inferior country is not being battle tested. The Russians had to use some political tricks to use the Army not to fight a war, but rather a special military operation.

In a war with NATO, the Russians would gear up much, much stronger and be quite a formidable force. Still, the vulnerabilities and issues presented by their forces in Ukraine would apply. We didn’t really make many military mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan but lost it during the after-war peace and nation building we were too stupid to try. That’s our Achilles heel.

1. Air power. Not to brag, but our Air Force is the largest in the world (our Navy is the SECOND largest) and would quickly achieve air supremacy. Consider the Israeli’s, even today, over Syria, while Syria is defended with Russian planes, tactics and S-400 missiles. That doesn’t even count the British, French and German air forces, as well as Poland and Sweden. Very formidable forces.

2. Our army is the world’s best. All the new weapons used by Ukraine to such a great effect are mostly old hat to these guys.

3. Unless China intervenes, and then it’s WW3. Still, Chinese weapons and tactics are also very much like Soviet tank army on land. A Chinese war with the USA would be up to our Navy and Marines. Personally, I think we’re close to the end of the big carrier groups being supreme. If we’re smart, we’d use submarines to sink Chinese vessels and an air campaign against their missile sites long before we’d deploy carriers close by, meaning East of Guam. The Japanese is our junior partner, and they have a very good navy and air force. Say half as good/big as ours. I can’t see us going to war against China with the Japanese staying neutral.

The best hope for all and the world is Trump back in the saddle and he would end all of this nonsense. If he was allowed to rule without the constant Russian hoax, I believe he would never had made Putin our enemy. This is totally on the backs of the media and democrats, but I repeat myself.
The worst thing in the world right now is Biden and his team of woke Obamaites in charge. SHUDDER!

[kabar]

Lithuania did not impose sanctions, nor even declare Russia goods from one part of Russia to another prohibited, but rather the EU did.

Lithuania is part of the EU. Lithuanian authorities will be the ones enforcing the sanctions. The fact that the EU has this kind of control over the sovereignty of a member is one of the reasons why Russia does not want Ukraine as part of the EU or NATO.

So, it IS an important distinction, in so far as how Russia reacts.

The Russians understand quite well the difference, but it won't affect their reaction. Lithuania has been among the most vocal proponents of increased sanctions on Russia as well as urging the European Union to sanction Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church.

March 17, 2022--President of Lithuania wants more Russian sanctions amid fears Baltics could be Putin’s next target

“We have never had the illusions that we will be forgotten [by Russia],” he said. “And we did a lot in order to strengthen our security: Increase defense spending, invest more into military equipment, and we intend to increase defense spending in the future … because everybody understands the geopolitical situation, the threats, and we can take the decisions without any long discussions [in government].”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the small Baltic nation of Lithuania has been one of Kyiv’s most steadfast supporters. In May, Lithuania became the first country to designate Russia as a terrorist state.

In this case it isn’t NATO, but rather the EU. Now here is another important distinction, as NATO directly involves the USA and Canada, while the EU doesn’t (and doesn’t include the United Kingdom).

But Lithuania has been a member of NATO since 2004, which makes the US the guarantor of their sovereignty. Any retaliation against Lithuania by Russia will involve a NATO, not an EU, response. The EU has no military capability to respond to Russian aggression.

Whatever happens with NATO in regard to member states hijacking it to settle scores, is very much dependent on American leadership. Under Trump, this would not be allowed/condoned, but under Biden’s weak hand is an issue of concern.

Let's be honest. Without the US, NATO is a paper tiger. I can understand why the former Warsaw Pact, Baltic countries, and now Finland and Sweden want to join NATO. The US becomes the guarantor of their sovereignty up to and including nuclear war. Not such a good deal for us.

Uncle Sap has provided a security umbrella for Europe for too long. If most of the NATO countries cannot even meet their obligation of spending 2% of GDP on defense, then how can we take them seriously on security threats? They have chosen butter over guns. Interoperability with American forces is a joke. In the only use of Article 5, triggered by 9/11, the US bore most of the costs in blood and treasure in Afghanistan. We provided the logistics. The Germans refused to perform a combat role.

The reality is that Russia poses no real security threat to Europe. The EU dwarfs Russia demographically and economically. The Russians don't have the ability to defeat and occupy Europe witness the Russian experience in Ukraine.

The real threat is China, which has compromised our leadership. The stark difference between how we reacted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine compared to the Chinese premature takeover of Hong Kong illustrates how dependent we have become on Chinese mercantilism. Biden is now in the process of removing the tariffs against Chinese goods. Our global trade deficit hit $1 trillion in 2021, the highest in history.

Our involvement in Ukraine has been an obsession of the political elites and the Administrative State for a long time. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Ukraine was a client state that hosted a broad spectrum of US and NATO intelligence operations. Hence our disproportionate response to the current Russian invasion.

Ukraine has also been the locus of easy money for the political elites and their progeny. The children of Biden, Kerry, Pelosi, and Romney dipped their beaks into the corrupt cesspool called Ukraine. Manafort and John Podesta's brother made money there. And so did a number of former State Department officials like Amb Taylor, a Trump impeachment trial witness. Think tanks like Brookings were involved heavily in Ukraine, which is among the four most corrupt countries in the world. It is also a poor country with a per capita GDP of $12,400 (2020), which is $100 more than Cuba's. The billions we are pouring in now and in the future to rebuild Ukraine will get siphoned off by the oligarchs.

Ukraine's Ambassador to the US got involved in the 2016 Presidential campaign by authoring an article attacking Trump and supporting Hillary. The DNC (Alexandra Chalupa) was working with the Ukrainian Embassy to dig out dirt on Manafort and Trump. The perfect phone call with Zelensky got Trump impeached the first time with the help of leaks from Ukrainian-born LtCol Vindman and the CIA's Eric Ciaramella. It seems the more you dig into a scandal, there is some sort of Ukrainian connection, e.g., the biggest donor to the Clinton Foundation was Ukraine.

Despite all of this, the Russians could end it all tomorrow by withdrawing from Ukraine. They could even withdraw but keep “peace keeping” forces in their part of the Donbas.

The war in Eastern Ukraine has been going on for 8 years. The US and NATO were deeply involved in the 2014 coup in Ukraine that removed a Russian-leaning, but duly elected government. This led to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the separatist movement in the Donbas. Victoria Nuland, the current Under Secretary of Political Affairs, was our point person in the 2014 coup as head of EUR. One can only imagine Putin's reaction to the return of the same foreign policy team that set the stage for his previous intervention. The chances of a Russian withdrawal are slim to none, and slim just left town.

None of this needs to go on much longer if cooler heads prevail, but the initial invasion was wrong-headed and is rightfully condemned.

The Russian invasion is indefensible, but the Russia-Ukraine war could and should have been avoided. If you review the events leading up to it, the US seemed intent on provoking a military response by Russia. In addition to NATO expansion, which Kennan said in 1998, "expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era,'' an article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ written on July 10, 2021 should have set off alarm bells and evoked a flurry of diplomatic activity.

Instead the US doubled down by signing on November 10, 2021 the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership while Russian troops were massing on the border. We were making false security commitments to Ukraine and poking Putin in the eye.

There could be a conference on Europe where some of these disputed areas are addressed. Russia should get and keep Crimea. Ukraine should get their Black Sea coast back. However, the Eastern shore of the Sea of Azov should be part of whatever rump state (that the people who live there agree to) that comes out of the Donbas.

But Zelensky and the US say that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine. It is non-negotiable. If the Ukrainians had implemented the 2015 Minsk agreement, the Donbas region would have remained a part of Ukraine.

The war will end when the US and the West tell Ukraine to end it. As long as the US sees benefits to this proxy war in the hopes of weakening Russia and removing Putin, the war will go on to the last Ukrainian. France, Germany, and Italy won't continue down the same path with the US and the UK. The domestic impact will be too painful to bear politically.We have slipped mindlessly into a new Cold War and no one knows how to walk it back. We are witnessing a new global alignment.

Berlusconi said, "Russia is isolated from the West, but the West is isolated from the whole world." He noted, "Liberal democracy, which we take for granted, is a system of government that affects less than a quarter of the earth's population."

[kabar]

So, the Ruskies are getting a taste of the Berlin air lift, removed some fifty/sixty years?

But the Soviets allowed us to fly in supplies thru assigned air corridors. The Berlin airlift (Jun 24, 1948 – May 12, 1949) was a remarkable logistical triumph. During the airlift, Allied planes carrying supplies landed every 45 seconds at Templehof Airport in Berlin.

I was assigned to the US Mission Berlin (1983-87). Berlin was still considered an occupied city under the control of the French, British, US, and Soviets. We operated under the 1971 Quadripartite agreement. We used to refer to it as the Berlin theology. We had a facility called the Berlin Air Safety Center (BASC), which approved all flights in and out of Berlin thru the three air corridors connecting us to Western Europe. We had Soviets, French, Americans, and Brits passing pieces of paper in the same room controlling the flights. When you traveled via land to and from the West, there were check points manned by Soviets and East Germans.

We did not recognize East Berlin as part of the GDR. West Berlin was comprised of the French, UK, and US sectors. German taxpayers paid for the costs associated with our administration of the city.

When Reagan visited Berlin in 1987, in addition to his visit to the Wall, he came to Templehof airport to honor the Berlin Airlift, which included the presence of Col Gail Halvorsen who originated the "candy bombers." The flights into Berlin during the airlift had pilots who parachuted candy to the children. During Reagan's visit to Tempelhof, we dropped thousands of mini parachutes w/candy from the ceiling. Quite a sight.

[kabar]

We haven’t had a real budget for many years. Even if the Reps take over the House, we still won’t have one. We have been operating under continuing resolutions and Omnibus bills. It is very difficult to cut any funding. Once something gets into the base, it is hard to eliminate.

[kabar]

Russian conventional forces would have a hard time competing against us given our superiority in weaponry and command an control. The US has been fighting endless wars. Our forces have been truly battle tested, albeit against inferior military forces.

IMO, the Russian military would present us with a much tougher test, but we would prevail. However, I am concerned about our woke military and its ability to continue to recruit and retain quality personnel.

[Alas Babylon!]

The Russian invasion is indefensible, but the Russia-Ukraine war could and should have been avoided.

and...

The war will end when the US and the West tell Ukraine to end it.

OR...

The war will end when the Russians stop the invasion and withdraw.

Why is this not ALSO an option?

[Alas Babylon!]

I spent many a night at the Templehof bolling alley, then run by AAFES, drinking Kindel bier.

Good times.