Replies

“Actually, oil is falling off a cliff.”

Almost perfectly aligned with oil’s dominant annual cycle.

Historically, since the early last Century (1920’s), greater than 80% > of the TWO annual high’s for oil (and RBOB [gas]), cyclically top within 1 month of what is Memorial (give or take from Memorial Day), with the Annual Top being either proximal to Memorial Day (with secondary top in mid September), or the Annual Top being in Mid September (with secondary top being Memorial Day).

These tops may well be followed by strong and abbreviated volatility.

As well, greater than 90% > of Oil and RBOB Annual Lows take place within a 5 week window between January to mid February.

What’s even funnier, you can almost always see the CBOT set up of Commercial’s (who are by far the biggest movers of these markets) vs Speculators and Institutional/Fund traders (these together being smaller than the commercial traders). As with other commodity trading, you also often see large *Open Interest simultaneously, both telling you the market is about to swing/pivot.

Folks, you cannot pick the tops and bottoms, but you can know the historical “annuals” (window) with a significant degree of accuracy. If we are in an off year, where the market isn’t following the dominant annual cycle, you can often see this reflected again with how the “Commercial Buyer’s” are positioning, as well as “Open Interest” not being such a spread. There are several other very good technical indicators which track the same underlying commercial activity.