> The big risk for China in an armed conflict is sanctions from the west. Their economy collapses without sales into the US and European markets. <
Very good point. However, sanctions would also cause widespread shortages - and even more inflation - in the US. According to some sources, 60% of what Walmart sells is made in China. Walmart sells that stuff (clothing, appliances, etc.) because people can afford it. What happens when all those shelves go bare?
A strong president like FDR or Trump would thread that needle. A weak president like Biden might just water down the sanctions so much as to make them meaningless.
Walmart sells that stuff (clothing, appliances, etc.) because people can afford it. What happens when all those shelves go bare?
Then people will get by with the old stuff they already have for awhile longer until alternative sources refill the shelves. Or buy used stuff if they absolutely must have a new toaster or washing machine right now. Sure, there'd be some inflation, but nothing like there is from reducing supplies of food and energy. Food and energy aren't things you can buy used, or put off buying for a year or so.
China would be hurt much more by a US and EU embargo than the west would. Right now, China is doing a balancing act. They need food and energy from Russia, but they're being careful not to annoy the west too much. They'll make whatever meaningless political gestures are necessary to avoid being treated as an enemy by the west.