I apologize for the “word salad” or as my wife says, “you just vomit on the page sometimes”.
First of all, thank you for reading what I posted.
I try to organize my thoughts but this Ukrainian war is, like you stated, more complicated than just Putin being mean. That’s what leads me to try to get all my thoughts and observations down and then to see if others see what I think I see and read.... or am I just wrong about this entire situation and should just trust that Joe, JCOS and our intelligence community is honest, competent and disciplined enough to deal with the Russian sociopath.
Secondly, I DON’T know what is going to happen. THAT is my point. NOBODY knows what is going to happen when a war starts. Once the fighting starts, there are so many variables (humans are messy that way) that predicting which “side” wins or what are the results won’t be known for a long time.
I am just writing what I think will happen and possibly WHY.
I will address your analysis of my fallacious assumptions.
1. I don’t want to appeal to fear but to take a threat seriously. A two year old can have a temper tantrum and a six year old can punch me in the arm and say, “I hate you and wish you’d die.”.... But a 23 year old sociopath with a weapon walking by my house with a pistol in his hand and telling me to get back in my house will get my attention and I’d try to do as you say....have an alliance “Gather a group and deal with the man or leave him alone.”
But accommodations will have to be made and he will have to be dealt with. Is it worth killing him, disarming him... will my neighbors and the cops help me put him away or will he get a strongly worded warning and come back and kill my family and me later.... and maybe I’d like to figure out why he was walking down the street with a gun in the first place.
That’s what I mean by trying to put a motive on what Russia is doing. Why do you think Putin decided to invade Ukraine? I don’t really care about what Russia “needs” but I sure would like to know what they think they “need” in order to plan for war or other problems that may develop.
2. This isn’t about “Orange man bad”. He was the one that actually didn’t go around starting wars and tried to get us out of the nation building bullsh#t of spreading Jeffersonian democracy to countries and cultures that don’t want to have ever had it.
If you don’t think the “color” revolutions are not CIA/Deep state election rigging to put pro-western leaders in place, well I think you’d benefit from looking into it. Of course I may have misinterpreted or just come to the wrong conclusions.
My comparisons about missile bases, etc...are to see the world from how Russia may see the world. They are scenarios that would let us see what or how Russia may feel threatened. I don’t think we’d like Russian naval assets with nukes in Cuba or Mexico or Canada.
As far as sci-fi Chinese expansion..... well China is already expanding in South and Central America with Hutchison-Whampoa and Landbridge Group operating the ports on both ends of the Panama Canal and plans for building a larger canal in Nicaragua.... That’s what I meant, look at the world through the eyes of your enemy and see what he sees.
The last comment about the 30 million dead Russians is to point out that losing thousands of men and material are difficult but the Russian culture is still familiar with great loss of life in it’s recent past.
You and I are not invading Russia but they may “feel” the threat of nuclear missiles that are minutes from their capital and the majority of their paltry 145 million inhabitants.
I don’t feel like sacrificing a son, nephews and friends in defense of Lithuanian freedom, Estonian liberty or a corrupt government in Ukraine that has bought the best friends money can buy in our executive and legislative branches of government.
Just look at the results of the great minds in dealing with this Ukrainian invasion... the Ruble’s value, the crippling of the world food production, our “allies” buying Russian oil with Rubles and we just drift into an economic and cultural mess.
Meanwhile the lobbyists, family members of Senators/Presidents/Congress and Raytheon, General Dynamics etc.. get a pay day.
I am just worried about what will be coming down the road and how our country and my family will be affected.
Finally, I just have an aversion to anything that is so robustly supported by the democrat party and msm.
I just don’t trust the party that throws a man with 3 Purple Hearts in our face as an environmental scion and strategic thinker or drags the body of a POG JAG officer with a Bronze Star in front of Gold Star family members then compares him to the that served in actual combat.
warmest regard and respectfully
Vomer
Glad that that remark of mine ("word salad") wasn't taken as a provocation.
First of all, thank you for reading what I posted.
You seem sincere, so I have given you the benefit of the doubt. There are, unfortunately, a significant number of BAD ACTORS – people not arguing in good faith and/or deliberately attempting to disrupt and undermine civil discourse – here at Free Republic, and I sometimes forget to check the name of the person to whom I am responding with the tentative list of agents provocateurs I've compiled for my own use, so I sometimes am unduly harsh in my replies. Thanks for your forbearance!
Secondly, I DON'T know what is going to happen. THAT is my point. NOBODY knows what is going to happen when a war starts. Once the fighting starts, there are so many variables (humans are messy that way) that predicting which "side" wins or what are the results won't be known for a long time.
Nor do I KNOW what's going to happen. But it's a popular tactic of the aforementioned BAD ACTORS to pretend to be "concerned" and even frightened, in an attempt to sow fear and paralyze our resolve.
1. I don't want to appeal to fear but to take a threat seriously. A two year old can have a temper tantrum and a six year old can punch me in the arm and say, "I hate you and wish you'd die.".... But a 23 year old sociopath with a weapon walking by my house with a pistol in his hand and telling me to get back in my house will get my attention and I'd try to do as you say....have an alliance "Gather a group and deal with the man or leave him alone." But accommodations will have to be made and he will have to be dealt with. Is it worth killing him, disarming him... will my neighbors and the cops help me put him away or will he get a strongly worded warning and come back and kill my family and me later.... and maybe I'd like to figure out why he was walking down the street with a gun in the first place.
A fair analogy! (But I would still rather die on my feet than live, groveling on my knees – so I will NOT automatically choose the alternative offering the absolute highest likelihood of survival!)
That's what I mean by trying to put a motive on what Russia is doing. Why do you think Putin decided to invade Ukraine? I don't really care about what Russia "needs" but I sure would like to know what they think they "need" in order to plan for war or other problems that may develop.
Just how do you propose to go about finding out what Putin really "needs?" Not by listening to him, I hope! He would be a fool to reveal his "true" motives! And not by "putting yourself in his place," I hope! Try that with Charles Manson! Or even with Premier Xi! Their mentalities and outlooks are far too foreign for you to empathize with them. Putin is a billionaire socio-path, former KGB, perhaps suffering a terminal illness; can you honestly say that you are capable of "putting yourself into his shoes?!"
My comparisons about missile bases, etc...are to see the world from how Russia may see the world. They are scenarios that would let us see what or how Russia may feel threatened. I don't think we'd like Russian naval assets with nukes in Cuba or Mexico or Canada.
The fact remains that such scenarios (a foreign superpower installing missile bases in Mexico or Canada) are totally outlandish! That you have to imagine such preposterous scenarios only goes to show that it is, from the get-go, unrealistic to compare Russian geopolitical interests and American ones in this way.
As far as sci-fi Chinese expansion..... well China is already expanding in South and Central America with Hutchison-Whampoa and Landbridge Group operating the ports on both ends of the Panama Canal and plans for building a larger canal in Nicaragua.... That's what I meant, look at the world through the eyes of your enemy and see what he sees.
This latter issue you bring up is a legitimate one – but not comparable to Russia/Ukraine; no one in Central America is joining (or threatening to join) an opposing military alliance, nor is the U.S. invading and rocket-bombing any C. American country or launching a land-grab. Please discuss it ELSEWHERE.
The last comment about the 30 million dead Russians is to point out that losing thousands of men and material [sic; you mean: materiel] are difficult but the Russian culture is still familiar with great loss of life in it's [sic!] recent past.
Please don't get carried away! We are as yet no where near that situation.
You and I are not invading Russia but they may "feel" the threat of nuclear missiles that are minutes from their capital and the majority of their paltry 145 million inhabitants.
In trying to empathize with the Russians (a course which I would again advise against), let's please not forget to think about ourselves! The Russians have nuclear submarines off our coasts, and thus we, too, are existentially threatened. The Russians are not "special" in this respect! And are thus not deserving of any "special" consideration.
I don't feel like sacrificing a son, nephews and friends in defense of Lithuanian freedom, Estonian liberty […]
Right now, Ukrainian soldiers (and civilians) are dying for your and my liberty. It is not their intention to do so, but their actions are having a net positive effect for us by thwarting Putin, revealing Russia to be a second-rate power with a third-class strategy, and degrading Russian military assets. And don't confuse the Ukrainian govt. with the Ukrainian people!
Just look at the results of the great minds in dealing with this Ukrainian invasion... the Ruble's value, the crippling of the world food production, our "allies" buying Russian oil with Rubles and we just drift into an economic and cultural mess.
Chicken Little! Again with the attempt to incite panic, instill defeatism and perhaps even nihilism! "Oh, it's all so complicated! So messy! I wish it were simpler! So let's give up and/or withdraw from engagement."
As Americans, we don't have that luxury!
Meanwhile the lobbyists, family members of Senators/Presidents/Congress and Raytheon, General Dynamics etc.. get a pay day.
Irrelevant! Again with the "Demand for Perfection" Fallacy! You are overly fastidious! Go back to your bridge club and drinking tea with the ladies. Politics is a dirty business!
I am just worried about what will be coming down the road and how our country and my family will be affected.
Well, then maybe a worry-wart like you shouldn't concern himself with such unpleasant matters. We are all free to delve into these matters, to educate ourselves, to weigh matters, and to express our considered opinions – but to simply cry "Worry! Worry! Worry!" is unproductive.
Finally, I just have an aversion to anything that is so robustly supported by the democrat party and msm.
Sorry that the world is so complicated for you! Sorry that bad people sometimes – by shear coincidence – support good positions! As Churchill said, "If the Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."
I just don't trust the party that throws a man with 3 Purple Hearts in our face as an environmental scion and strategic thinker or drags the body of a POG JAG officer with a Bronze Star in front of Gold Star family members then compares him to the [sic; something missing here?] that served in actual combat.
Irrelevant! Our mutual distaste (to put it mildly) towards the Democratic Party has no bearing upon the illegitimacy of the Russian invasion!
Regards,