I forgive you for your insults, they aren’t supported by good facts. I really respect Trafalgar, one of the three best in the business. The other two are Big Data Poll (Rich Baris) and Susequehanna. You are quoting Trafalgar poll which is one month old. In this race, that is like citing a 2016 poll. I cited Susquehanna which was released today and was still polling yesterday. You will learn than some races can see big changes in a few hours. This is such a race.
Trafalgar and Susquehanna are first rate operations, but I give a slight edge to Susquehanna because they are a Pennsylvania based enterprise. Plus, their poll is fresh and even Trafalgar would not stand by their one month old results.
In this case MOE is not as important as other factors. Number one is that Susquehanna is a playoff caliber team. Number two, they have local knowledge and number three that all polling are showing very large undecided vote. These late deciders (today and tomorrow) will select the Republican candidate. No poll can predict their decision.
The trends are clear. Kathy Barnette made a surge after her great performance at the debate. Dr. Oz got a bump from the Trump endorsement. McCormick came off the tracks and is slipping by the hour. Right now, the race is between Oz and Barnette and none of us, including you and me, will know until we get the actual vote results. Given that this is Pennsylvania, we cannot know what the Democrats will do in the next 24 hours. We know that they won’t sit on their hands. Barnette shows her inexperience and she has made major mistakes. Her team bungled the issue of her military service. I think that she has recovered, but veterans are very intolerant of anyone who smack of Stolen Valor, even if they have only served in the National Guard. Now that she has cleaned that up, I think that she is OK. The National Guard are the original citizen soldiers and their service is respectful. And she really was an Adjunct Professor. We will probably something hear some new this evening, but it will have to be breaking news to make a big difference.
This election will decided by the undecided as they make a choice tonight.
Now you can go back to your insults if you prefer. Bad day for you to make a fool of yourself. If you live in Pennsylvania, make sure that you vote tomorrow.