Replies

“ they (Javelins) absolutely do not give you one shot, one kill. More like 21 shots to one kill (high) or 10:1 low.”

They have been thoroughly tested by the Militaries of many Nations over many years, and the probability of kill is well known (>90%).

The assumption that all Javelins provided to the Ukrainians have already been expended, is an obvious error. You have no idea of the number of shots, or of the shot to kill ratio.

ATGMs like Javelins, drones, and Western Intelligence made it unsafe for Russian vehicles to move around in the Ukraine. The new Artillery capability is making it unsafe for them to stand still. Their losses are going to accelerate, as they lose a lopsided Artillery contest - as was recently shown by the destruction of the 74th Motorized Rifle Regiment at their failed River crossing near Bilohorivka. The Western Artillery is now a game changer, like ATGMs were during the initial assault.

At the meeting of the NATO foreign ministers (plus Finland and Sweden) yesterday, the NATO Secretary General declared that Ukraine can win this war. Based on the supporting actions taken, that seems to reflect the intent and assessment of NATO, rather than a vague hope.

Russia massively overcommitted its available ground combat power to this Operation (about 2/3rds of their total). It has been clearly inadequate to the task, and has been heavily attrited since. They have already lost more than they did in a decade in Afghanistan, when the Soviet Military was four times the size - which was a Strategic defeat for them. The second half of this war so far has been a significant net loss of territory by Russian forces.

Ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in the East of the Ukraine did not flock to join Russia. They are overwhelmingly fighting and sacrificing to resist that - even in many cases of being tortured to death.

Take a look at your bias, you are making some major errors in assessment.