“ Russia is going to replace customers before the customers would be able to replace Russia though.”
Definitely not for gas. The Europeans are buying/renting all the ships and Russia is sanctioned from raising money to build new pipelines that go elsewhere. The distances are huge for new pipelines anyhow - time zones.
Already, Russia has completely lost the business of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Poland and Bulgaria; without replacing them with new customers. Major reductions have already occurred from the rest of Europe (e.g. Germany and Italy) without Russia replacing those exports. There are no ready replacements for the gas exports that were shut off today through the Ukraine.
Everyone knows that sanctions will follow whoever buys Russia’s taboo oil or gas, so no long term contracts are being signed. Discounted spot market shipments (mostly oil) are temporarily buffering some of the loss in export volume, but further restrictions on those shipments have already been approved, that will go into effect in June. Secondary sanctions on other buyers will follow like night follows day, after/as the Europeans replace Russian oil and gas. It is much less painful for the Europeans to sanction other buyers, than it is for them to replace Russia as a supplier.
When the transition is complete, and Russian production is completely surplus, global prices will normalize back down - further reducing the revenue from whatever reduced quantities Russia can still move at a smuggler’s discount. Since Russian deposits are inherently relatively high cost to produce, it is likely that they will frequently operate at a Soviet style loss, to keep letting the corrupt officials skim part of the proceeds, while the Government and population absorb the losses.
Russia is hurtling toward a North Korean style economy at record speed. Zimbabwe has a lot of natural resources too, but their Chinese puppet masters don’t pay them anywhere near global spot prices for what they extract for themselves. They don’t pay any of their vassals well, as a matter of policy, to keep them as poor, dependent vassals.
North Korean style oppression is going to be required to retain political control. Russia is on track to become a giant gulag of poverty for its people, as the money runs out. This Summer will see it go from bad to worse economically and politically.
You are talking based on propaganda. First, oil and gas make about 15% of the Russian economy which is not really export-oriented. Second, Russia is currently receiving the all-time highs in terms of energy exports of about $1,7 billion per day. Whatever it is losing in volumes it gets more on higher prices.
The total replacement of the Russian gas in Europe is possible in about a decade with about $1,5-2 trillion in investments (although not assured) and that only to get LNG which is 4-7 times more expensive than Russian gas.
That would destroy the competitive edge for Europe, which is already losing to Asia, more so after the cheap Russian energy ends and diverted to Asia to fuel the Asian growth.
Most of the world outside G7 and Europe couldn’t care less about Russian sanctions. They are heavily divesting from the USD and related assets. They look at China in the first place, which is their main trading partner.
I think the West has outplayed its hand here. There is going to be a tectonic geopolitical shift and the world split into two or three blocks barely interconnected with each other.
The West is not going to be a leader in this setup.